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Posted Wednesday, October 25 at 1:00 PM EST. 

Cutoff time to place bets is October 26 at 8:20 AM EST at Bet365 and 8:41 AM EST at Pinnacle

Sanderson Farms Championship.

The big bucks and the star names of golf are over in China this week for the WGC-HSBC Champions event but we have a better opportunity for a bomb to come in with this more wide open field and so this alternate event is the one we’ll choose to attack. The Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi is very much worthy of our attention. Here we will see an intriguing battle between the young guns fresh from the Web.com Tour, the solid PGA TOUR pros looking to pick up a trophy and the wily old veterans aiming for one final payday before the sanctity of the Champions Tour comes a-calling.

This Jackson layout is a scoreable stretch that doesn’t really favor anybody in particular: hot putters (Cody Gribble won here in 2016), boomers off the tee (Luke List was T2 in 2016) and shorter hitters (David Toms was second in 2015) have all prospered, although the ability to make birdies is universal: a winning mark of around -18 is expected. The greens are Bermuda and pretty slick by all accounts, although they are pretty easy to find given their generous proportions. Some players have spoken of the dense Bermuda rough at Jackson in the past, but Gribble only ranked 38th for Driving Accuracy in his winning effort, so maybe that is something of a fallacy.

We make no bones about it: this is a tough week to pick a winner in that we still don’t have a handle on which Web.com guys are going to kick on. In this very event 12 months ago, Grayson Murray led after 36 holes before Gribble took the honors – both recent Web.com  Tour graduates from the deep south – so perhaps that is one angle to explore. We’ve also a penchant for a hungry, more experienced pro looking to return to the spotlight, so again, the field is wide open but that also provides opportunity. Hopefully one or more of our choices will be on the first page leaderboard on Sunday with a chance to cash in. 

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. 

Tyler Duncan 50-1

One of the most impressive debuts at the Safeway Open came courtesy of Tyler Duncan, who finished T5 and just four shots shy of winner Brendan Steele. He played nicely from tee-to-green (+1.335 SG) and with flat stick in hand (+1.285), and indeed Duncan was in positive numbers for all of the Strokes Gained metrics to cap a fine week at Silverado – not forgetting that he led after 54 holes. That has hopefully given him a taste for life at the top of the leaderboard, and we’re confident enough his game will hold up if he gets into the mix – he ranked 1st for Driving Accuracy (from a not-too-short 299-yard average) and 16th for Putting Average on the Web.com  Tour. At 50-1 in a field like this, he’s worth a bet (Risking 0.2 units to win 10). 

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Robert Garrigus 50-1

Are you ready to play a game of “Let’s Take a Gamble on an Underpriced Pro?" If golf was played by computers rather than human beings, Garrigus would be an excellent player: he ranked top-40 for Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green on the PGA TOUR last season! The fact he was so highly rated in those three key metrics – he also finished ninth in Greens in Regulation for the old-school stat hunters – suggests he should really be doing a lot better than he is, but here’s a fun stat regardless: Garrigus’ three top-10 finishes in 2017 have all come at alternate events (Canadian Open, Barbasol Championship, Barracuda) and you may just recall in 2010 when he led the St. Jude Classic heading into the final hole before fluffing his lines before then by winning another PGA TOUR later in the year. He also finished top-five at the US Open in 2011. Regardless of what happens at this event, Garrigus is in his element and no matter how you break it down, the above is a captivating collection of evidence (Risking 0.2 units to win 10).

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Aaron Baddeley 66-1

Generally down the years, Baddeley has been regarded as a so-so kind of player whose brilliance on the greens has led to some reasonable success – four PGA TOUR wins and counting. The Aussie ranked eighth for SG: Putting in 2015, and while his form with the flat stick has tailed off, since it is noticeable that he tends to do better on slicker Bermuda than grainy Poa Annua, as was the case in missing the cut at the Safeway Open a few weeks ago, albeit at T76. More interesting to us was the fact he ranked 11th for SG: Tee-to-Green and third for SG: Approach at Silverado; not two facets we would normally associate with Baddeley’s game. Remember, this is a generally excellent putter whose iron play is dialed in at present, and his last win on Tour came in another alternate event: the Barbasol Championship in 2016. He was T4 here the same year and finished T5 and T15 at the Texas and Houston Opens respectively last year, and so Baddeley has enough about him to suggest he’s worth getting behind at this price (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2).

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Stephan Jaeger 110-1

The history books say do not leave out some Web.com Tour graduates because they are truly the sleepers in the group that pop often at these types of events. While one really doesn’t know which one will go off, there is enough evidence to suggest that German-born Stephan Jaeger is worth a play. He won twice on the Web.com  Tour in 2017 – no mean feat – and finished T7 at the News Sentinel Open played in Knoxville, Tennessee. Jaeger actually studied at the University of Tennessee as well, so perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised to see that he is comfortable in Southern conditions and on Bermuda greens. He made his maiden PGA TOUR start at the Safeway Open a couple of weeks ago, and while his T30 finish was impressive enough on debut, even more eye-catching was the feat of raking second for GIR. That suggests he is striking the ball well and will not be overawed by stepping up in class. (Risking 0.2 units to win 22).

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Head-to-head Matchups for The Sanderson Farms Championship

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

 

Featured head-to-head matchups of the week.

 

#7462 Ben Martin -112 over William McGirt

 

There are a number of young talents on the PGA TOUR that have been bubbling around for a while without really making that next step up to challenge the big boys. Ben Martin, still only 30, has recorded top-five finishes in each of the last four seasons on the PGA TOUR, and not just in alternate events but ‘proper’ tournaments with decent fields: John Deere, Quicken Loans, RBC Heritage and THE PLAYERS Championship. He won in 2015 at Shriners, and while that didn’t prove the catalyst for him to kick on and become a big player on the PGA TOUR, you do sense that Martin has the game to do something special. In theory at least, alternate events should be his best route back into the winner’s circle (he finished T6 and 14th at Barbasol and Barracuda last season) and his T17 at the Safeway Open a couple of weeks ago suggests his game is in good shape. 

 

William McGirt is the highest ranked player (75) at this event but that means jack. He’s 38 years old and hasn’t played since the Dell Technologies Championship back on Sept 1 to Sept 4. Last week, McGirt was honored with the Pride of Wofford Award at a ceremony he attended back at Wofford College. While that may mean nothing, it’s still a distraction that takes away focus and right now, McGirt is off a layoff after finishing T71, Cut, W/D Cut, Cut, T54 and 30th in his last seven tournaments. We’re confident Ben Martin can beat that (Risking 2.24 units to win 2). 

 

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Total Units Wagered for this event is 3.04 and we'll update this section on Monday after the results are official. 

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