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Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Milwaukee -1½ over St. Louis

8:10 PM EST. Lance Lynn (RHP - STL) is always worthy of fade consideration, and that is definitely the case here, as he squares off against one of the Brewers' top young pitching prospects, who we will get to in a moment. Back to Lynn, who walked away with a no-decision last Saturday, where he gave up five runs on four hits, struck out four, and issued three free passes in 5 IP. Lynn struggled to find the zone after firing just 53 of his 94 pitches for strikes. So far this season, Lynn’s surface ERA is 3.28, but his xERA is 4.57, and he has a WHIP of 1.40, with 33 Ks to 16 BBs in 35.2 IP. Furthermore, his first pitch strike rate is down over 5% from last year and his swing and miss rate is down over 2%. There is significant regression here, and we are not going to let up our attack on this stiff.

Meanwhile, the Brewers have called up Robert Gasser (LHP - MIL) to make his MLB debut. The Crew picked up Gasser in the Josh Hader deal during the summer of 2022, and now he is their top pitching prospect and #5 overall. Gasser’s season was delayed after he suffered from a bone spur in his left elbow, which has led to only 3 starts this season with Triple-A Nashville, where he has 17 Ks in 12 IP.

As for his stuff, Gasser throws the kitchen sink at hitters from a low 3/4s slot, and he does a great job sequencing his pitches, and he’s a master of playing them off each other. His fastball is a tick higher this year (92-94 MPH range), and it does its best work up in the zone. His four-seamer is an above-average offering, and his two-seamer has some arm-side running action and it plays up in contrast to the 4-seamer. Gasser also brings a cutter and a slider, which has been his most improved offering this season, where he has a 65% whiff rate with it. At this pace, that slider is grading out to be a plus pitch. Gasser also flashes a fringe changeup, and so his arsenal runs deep. Oh, by the way, the Cards are dead last in average against lefties, hitting just .184.

Sherwood

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