Pinnacle -1½ +103 BET365 -1½ -105 Sportsinteraction -1½ -105 888Sport -1½ -105

Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

San Francisco -1½ over Colorado

3:10 PM EST. The Rockies will go with Cal Quantrill (RHP - COL), who picked up the win last Friday after giving up three hits over 7.2 scoreless innings, where he struck out nine without walking a batter. Hey, we’re not going to crap on a great day, but as the saying goes, “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then.” To that point, the 9 Ks were the most Quantrill had sat since 2022, and he’s been inconsistent at best here in 2024. In seven starts, he has four quality starts, but his other three were total dumpster fires in which he gave up 15 runs in 14 IP. Over Quantrill’s 39.2 innings this season, he has just 26 Ks. If you remove those nine from his last start, Quantrill posted 17 Ks in 32 IP.

Meanwhile, the Giants will send Keaton Winn (RHP - SF) for his eighth start of the season. Winn posted his worst turn of the year last Saturday in Philadelphia, and on paper, the stat line is ugly, but the circumstances around the five runs over 0.2 IP allow for some forgiveness, as Winn was out there in rain-soaked conditions.

One poor start does not make a season, and in the case of Winn, before that short night in Philly, he had opened the season with six quality starts. Winn has gotten a ton of ground balls (59% GB) but has been somewhat undone by a 14% HR/f and 66% strand (.395 BABIP with runners in scoring position). He's got a 3.03 xERA over his last five starts (despite logging a disaster start in his last) and is most certainly underpriced here. The Rockies rank 26th in MLB with their .653 OPS (and that only rises to .701 at home); they have a 28% K rate against right-handers. Let’s Go!

Sherwood

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Pinnacle +132 BET365 +130 Sportsinteraction +130 888Sport +130

Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Chicago +135 over Cleveland

7:40 PM EST. This play is not about Erick Fedde (RHP - CWS) and the White Sox, but there’s nothing wrong with his ERA (3.46) or xERA (3.67). His groundball rate (44%) is solid, as are the 41 Ks to 14 BBs across 39 IP and so too is his WHIP of 1.18. One could do a lot worse than Fedde at an inflated price like this.

On the surface, Ben Lively (RHP - CLE) might look like a tempting option to back against a White Sox team that is just 9-28 and 5-12 at home on the South Side, but forgive us for not being able to get excited about his 2.08 ERA, which is backed by an xERA of 3.67. We also cannot ignore his fortunate strand rate of 88.5%, nor can we gloss over his weak groundball rate of 29.6%. We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that Lively is 32 and has been a career minor leaguer who spent time in Korea.

Dude has never had a prolonged run of success in the bigs. Lively is over-performing here in 2024, at least on the surface, and his Statcast numbers show that despite his solid-looking start, he has given up loads of hard contact and he rarely gets batters to chase his mediocre stuff. Lively’s xERA with the Reds last year (88.2 IP) was 5.35, and there is nothing in this box that hints at another level, so it's best to look elsewhere if you're dying to spot an inflated price like this on the road because Ben Lively ain’t it.

Sherwood

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Play:

Pinnacle +105 BET365 -105 Sportsinteraction -105 888Sport -105

Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

L.A. Angels over Kansas City

9:38 PM EST. We’re here to “buy low” on Reid Detmers (LHP - LAA), who clocked a 1.19 ERA over his first four starts, but he owns a bloated 8.15 mark since. Detmers was a trendy breakout pick last year that didn't deliver, but remove his horrid July-Aug stretch (29 ER in 25.1 IP), and you get a 3.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. His 1st half K-BB% and swing-and-miss rate looked like a step forward, and it's even better this year, where it sits at a tremendous 13.4%.

Even with the rough recent ride, Detmers' xERA is 3.24, he has 44 Ks to 40.1 IP, and he has just 14 walks. Detmers’ Batting Average of Balls in Play has been unlucky at nearly .300, and his groundball rate is solid, so a correction to the good could be coming in that department. Tonight could be just what the doctor ordered, as Detmers draws a Kansas City Royals nine that has struggled against lefty pitching (.623 OPS, .120 ISO).

The Royals will answer with Michael Wacha (RHP - KC), who took the loss against Texas last Saturday, where he allowed seven runs on nine hits and one walk while striking out three batters over just 3.2 innings. It was Wacha’s second-round start in a row, as he also gave up nine hits over 5.2 IP in his April 28th start versus the Tigers, where he also struck out just three. Wacha has seen a decline of nearly 2% in his swing-and-miss rate since making the move from San Diego to Kansas City, and he is just not pitching well enough to be favored on the road against a feisty Angels team that is 13th in Average and 13th in Sluggin% vs RHP. The Halos are under the radar, and they are underpriced. Yeah, we’re “buying”.

Sherwood

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