Posted at 10:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

BET365 O24½ -115 Sportsinteraction O24½ -115

J. Valanciunas over 24½ points/rebounds

Best Odds: -115

3:40 PM EST. The market appears intent on ignoring Jonas Valanciunas' production when Zion is off the court, so today we get another opportunity to take advantage. The big Lithuanian has been steady for the Pels in their star's absence, producing 33 and 26 points/rebounds in two games. In game one he was a rebounding machine, stacking up 20 on the night in a close loss at Oklahoma City. He followed that up with a lighter presence at the rim, snagging only 7 rebounds in game two, but the 11-year pro was happy to accrue 19 points for his offense, a struggling unit that needed it against the high-flying Thunder. Game two probably should have been the game where we saw a dip in Valanciunas' numbers, since OKC came out on fire and elevated the tempo of the contest. That almost always works for the Thunder, especially against bigger, slower teams. If there's one thing we can admit about the 7-footer, it's that he's not the quickest or most athletically gifted center. Yet Jonas dropped 19 points in just 23 minutes, eclipsing his prop lines once again. 

Game two was also an outlier for several reasons. OKC shot a ridiculous 59% from the floor, a  mark that's damn-near unheard of in the NBA playoffs. They also shot 48.3% from beyond the arc, another ridiculous hit-rate. Rebounds just weren't needed as often, and eventually the Pels chose to play a smaller lineup in an attempt to beat OKC at their own game. That was clearly a mistake by New Orleans, a squad that prefers to interrupt their opponent's rhythm with a more methodical style of play.

In this case, regression is clearly coming. The Pels are back at home and only 1-point underdogs, a designation that accounts for how different game three will feel. Valanciunas is even more productive at home, averaging 2 more points/rebounds in front of his fans, and in the final month of the regular season they really dropped their tempo, falling into the bottom-third of NBA teams with a rating of 96 (the NBA's fastest teams rate around 103, the slowest at 93). Game three will be a contest tailor made for the Pels' physical center, a guy who, without Zion, is charged with enforcing the brand of physicality and rim dominance that the Pelicans have become known for. This prop is still too low.

Farley

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Posted at 10:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -3½ -105 BET365 -3½ -110 Sportsinteraction -3½ -110 888Sport -3½ -110

Denver -3½ over L.A. Lakers

Best Odds: -105 at Pinnacle

8:40 PM EST. If the Nuggets didn't take the Lakers' soul in game two, they certainly seemed to do so in game three. In all three affairs between Denver and LAL in this 7-game series, the Lakers have been the aggressor at the start of the contest. Winning every first quarter, the Lakers own a +7.3 average margin in the first 12 minutes of action, but from there things tend to devolve. Aaron Gordon eventually imposes his will under the rim, a guy that looks built for the NFL more than the NBA. Jamal Murray can't be kept down for long, almost always finding his stride when Denver is down and needs a boost. Michael Porter Jr. has been an absolute sharpshooter from the perimeter in big playoff spots before and this series has been no different; he's 11/23 (48%) from beyond the arc through 3 games. Depth pieces like Christian Braun, Reggie Jackson, Peyton Watson and others all step up when they need to.

And oh yeah, there's Nikola Jokic. Here's the thing folks - we're not in the business of blowing smoke up your ass. In this case we couldn't blow smoke even if we tried. Darvin Ham admitted it after game two, saying there's really no way to stop Jokic, and his team is proving him right. The two-time MVP, who's still only 29 years old we might add, is one of the most consistently dominant players the NBA has ever seen. In three battles he has averaged 28.3 points, 15.6 rebounds, and 8.6 assists against LeBron James and the Lakers. At times a hyped up Anthony Davis limited Jokic for short stretches, but the big-man always finds a way to produce or elevate his offense in some other way when he can't. Right now he's the biggest cheat-code in the association, and there's just simply no evidence that the Lakers will be able to limit his effect on this series.

The Nuggets just know how to beat the Lakers. LeBron James and Anthony Davis exploded with energy in game three, and for one quarter it looked like we might finally see a Lakers' win. But just when the L.A. faithful found some hope, Jokic and Murray and the reigning champs took it away just as quickly. Beating a team 11 straight times, mostly by margin, is not something that happens by accident. Oddsmakers are forced to put out a spread that gives the home team some respect, since the desperation and motivation just doesn't get any higher than an elimination game at your own arena. We'll zig one more time while they zag, because there's simply no reason to support the Lakers at this short of a number.

Farley

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