Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +116 BET365  +110 Sportsinteraction  +110 888Sport  +110

Cincinnati +116 over Texas

4:05 PM EST. Hunter Greene (RHP - CIN) took the loss on Monday, allowing four runs on seven hits and walking over seven innings against the Phillies while striking out six. Greene was admittedly not great, but he was good enough to keep the Reds in the game. However, the Cincinnati offense couldn't manage a single run against Philly. Greene brings an ugly surface ERA of 4.55 into this turn tonight, but his xERA is much better at 2.51. Furthermore, Greene has been very unlucky, as his Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) is an inflated .343, which means the guys behind him have let him down defensively. While it might not look like it on paper, Greene is as good as he’s ever been, posting both a very solid first-pitch strike rate of 63.6% and a swing-and-miss rate of 13.4%, which is exactly where he finished in 2023. He's in mid-season form, but he is being offered up at a discount here.

That said, Michael Lorenzen (RHP - TEX) is the real target here, as he cannot be favored in this range in his current form. While he is 2-0 and sports a surface ERA of 2.45, Lorenzen’s xERA is a bloated 6.47. Unlike Greene, Lorenzen’s BABIP shows that he’s been very lucky, as it’s just .208. He has walked eight batters in his 11 IP, and an inflated strand rate of 87.3% tells us that he is playing with fire. Mix in a weak first-pitch strike rate of 52.3%, and you’ve got a pitcher who is ready to explode for all the wrong reasons. Until there is a correction to the smoke and mirrors that are his surface stats, Lorenzen is on our radar to fade, as he cannot be favored in this range against the Reds. It’s time to “buy low” on Greene and “sell high” on Lorenzen, making this an easy wager for us to make.

Sherwood

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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +104 BET365  +105 Sportsinteraction  +105 888Sport  +105

Minnesota +104 over L.A. Angels

9:38 PM EST. Chris Paddack (RHP - MIN) is coming off his best start of the season on Monday, in which he pitched seven shutout innings while striking out 10 and earning a win over the White Sox. In that start, Paddack retired the first 10 batters he faced, and other than a bases-loaded situation in the fourth inning, he didn't face much adversity. In that turn, Paddack set season highs in innings pitched and punchouts, which brought his surface ERA to 5.57. While that number does not look good, Paddack’s xERA is a much more serviceable 3.89. He’s also seen an uptick in his first-pitch strike rate (54.5% in 2023 to 60.8% in 2024), and he’s seen his groundball rate return to form after a dip last season.

Jose Soriano (RHP - LAA) is finding his way in the rotation after beginning the season in the bullpen, but don't get caught up in the six scoreless innings he posted in his last start against the Reds, as he’s struggled with his control, walking eight batters over his last two starts (11 IP). Soriano missed most of 2021 and 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and the only reason he is in the rotation is that the Angels are desperate for starting pitching. While Soriano’s ERA is 3.43, his xERA is over a run higher at 4.59, and he boasts a brutal 4.71 BB/9 walk rate and has been supported by a lucky Batting Average of Balls in Play of .200. A correction to the bad is likely coming for Soriano across all fronts, and while we cannot predict that will happen today, we’ll test that hypothesis by fading him in this spot.

Sherwood

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