Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -104 BET365  -110 Sportsinteraction  -110 888Sport  -110

Vegas -104 over Dallas

10:37 PM EST. OT included. The Stars' heads have to be spinning after dropping the first two games of this series at home in Dallas as the #1 seed in the Western Conference, and if you were to listen to head coach Peter DeBoer, he doesn’t quite have the confidence he did after Game 1: "I think we're a confident group. We're obviously not in a great spot, but we're also a veteran group and understand if you win one game, things change. Pressure points change, attitudes change, so that's our focus.” As for the current deficit the Stars are facing, DeBoer says, "It's big, but you can't feel sorry for yourself.” Stars forward Tyler Seguin said much the same, but focused on what had to be done tonight: "You've got to start with one (win).”

With that, do the Stars sound like world-beaters or a team that racked up 113 points this season, or do they sound like a team that barely squeaked in and was getting dominated as expected? We lean to the latter, as the Golden Knights are totally in the Stars’ heads, just ask Jason Robertson: "They're the defending Cup champs for a reason. They know how to squeeze it out and finish a game off. It's going to be a grind (to come back in the series), but everyone in here is going to be confident and ready to go.” Perhaps we’re overanalyzing, but the coach mentions he “thinks” the Stars are a confident group, while Robertson says Dallas “is going to be” confident. Is there a confidence switch we don’t know about, and if so, why have the Stars waiting this long to flip it?

Last season, the Stars were in a similar spot in the Western Conference finals in which they came into Game 3 down 0-2, and they responded at that time with a clunker that saw them lose 4-0 to go down in that series 3-0. Dallas would win the next two, but finally fall to Vegas in six games. While there are many red flags for the Stars in advance of Game 3, we cannot ignore the fact that Vegas has not played all that well, and yet they are still in control of this series. The Fortress is never an easy place to play and with the Knights up 2-0, that rink is going to be rocking. Just how are the Stars going to overcome the pressure on them to get off to a good start, as Vegas did in Game 2, and take the crowd out of it?

If the Stars were gripping their sticks in Game 2, they are likely coming into this game tonight with their hands loaded with splinters, and if they are able to overcome the adversity and the atmosphere, so be it, but the Golden Knights cannot be a coin flip in this spot. They’ve beaten the Stars six times in a row, and ended their season last spring and they’ve not let Dallas breathe in this series. If the Golden Knights let up here and the Stars are able to steal a game, so be it, but a coin flip this is not. Wrong side favored.

Sherwood

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Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -106 BET365  -110 Sportsinteraction  -110 888Sport  -110

Updated Series Wager

Boston -106 over Toronto

We wagered on the Maple Leafs to win the series prior to Game 2 at +205 and after that win, we are going to “buy out” of our liability and “free roll” on Toronto for just under 2 units. If the Leafs win, great, and if they don’t, we’re not going to be in a position to lose any of our bankroll on this series. Only make this wager if you bet Toronto to Win the Series prior to Game 2.

Sherwood

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Posted April 23 prior to Game 2. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +131 BET365  +135 Sportsinteraction  +130 888Sport  +135

Updated Series Wager

Colorado +135 over Winnipeg

The final score of Game 1 read 7-6 in favor of Winnipeg but you can rack that score up to nothing but pure luck, as Winnipeg was chasing Colorado’s puck handlers all night long. It was pure domination by the Avalanche. Of the 16 teams that made the playoffs, none had a worse performance than Winnipeg except for Colorado’s goaltender. In the NHL, or all sports for that matter, results happen but results don’t tell the story all the time. Under the hood or below the surface Winnipeg was horrible while Colorado brought its championship pedigree to the ice. 

The Winnipeg newspaper headline read “WOW”. Nowhere in the article did it mention how Colorado dominated play. Nowhere did it mention how Winnipeg was extremely lucky to escape with a win. After the Game 1 Jets’ victory, Elliotte Friedman chipped in with this brainless narrative (in his Elliotte Friedman voice), “Imagine your Colorado and just scored six goals on Connor Hellebuyck and lost. If Colorado goes on to lose this series, they’ll look at Game 1 as to why”. 

Hey idiot, let’s say the final score was 1-0. Here’s your narrative, “ Imagine you’re Colorado and didn’t score even a single goal. If Colorado goes on to lose this series, they’ll look to Game 1 as to why”. 

Let’s imagine the final score was 4-3. Here’s Eliiotte Friedman again, “Imagine you’re Colorado and had a great chance to win Game 1 but didn’t. If Colorado loses this series, they’ll look to Game 1 as to the reason why”.   

What about the Leafs and Boston last night? Here’s Elliotte Friedman again, “Imagine you’re Boston, you scored first, you scored a very late goal in the first period to take a 2-1 lead, Toronto had a goal disallowed and yet you still lost despite all the deflating factors that Toronto had to overcome. If Boston goes on to lose this series, they’ll look at Game 2 as the reason why. 

The point is, Elliotte Friedman and the rest of the media has influence on the public but those narratives are completely moronic. You can apply it to any game. Here’s another narrative: If Colorado dominates again and fires away another 50 shots on net to the Jets 24 and dominates the time of possession in the offensive end again just like they did in Game 1, then Winnipeg is going to have to be on the extreme side of good luck again to even have a remote chance of winning. That’s not likely to happen. Give us the superior side by a wide margin to win in regulation and we’ll take our chances. To Elliotte Friedman, “Imagine you're a hockey analyst and you get hit in the head with a puck and say the stupidest things that mean absolutely jack. 

Go Avs.   

Sherwood

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Posted on April 22 prior to Game 2. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +202 BET365  +205 Sportsinteraction   +200 888Sport  +205

Toronto +205 to Win Series

The sky is falling in Hogtown after the Maple Leafs lost Game 1 in Boston, and so now it’s time to blow up the whole damn thing. Fire Brad Treliving, fire Sheldon Keefe, and trade everyone not named Auston Matthews; the Leafs are toast. We’ve heard and read it all since the final buzzer sounded on Saturday night, just like we heard it all last year after Toronto lost Game 1 to Tampa Bay. We get it; it’s hard to be a Leafs fan, but the “Chicken Little” hot takes every time this team faces a setback, either minor or major, are exhausting.

The 5-1 final on Saturday night looks bad on paper, but there are moments in games that can change everything, and for the Maple Leafs, that moment came down 1-0 in the second period when 69-goal man Matthews rang a shot off the crossbar. If it had hit the back of the net, it would have put Toronto right back in it and potentially tamed the boisterous Boston crowd. Instead, the puck would be in the back of the Maple Leaf net in what felt like a blink of an eye, and it was 2-0 Boston. After that, the Leafs took a couple of bad penalties that led to a pair of Jake DeBrusk power-play makers, and it was 4-0 B’s after 40. Each side would pot tallies in the third; however, the Leafs did have life over that final 20, outshooting Boston 12-3 in the final frame and 36-to-24 overall.

Going back to the last time they met in the playoffs, the Bruins have now beaten the Maple Leafs eight games in a row, which sounds impressive and even a bit daunting, but that is just another useless talking point for the pundits. However, it’s worth mentioning because those pundits influence the market. The reason the B’s won so lopsidedly was not because they have the Leafs’ “number” or because they were in their heads; it’s because Jeremy Swayman was way better than Ilya Samsonov between the pipes. Look, it’s not like the Leafs didn’t have their chances, as Swayman had to make a bunch of second-chance saves, and he kept his team in the game when really they were not playing that well in their own end.

The big blue elephant in the room is, of course, the status of William Nylander, who missed only his second game with an injury since 2016 when he was scratched with an undisclosed ailment in advance of Game 1. Nylander had not practiced on Friday, but he did return to the ice yesterday, although reports are not all that promising. Nylander was said by defenseman Jake McCabe to be in “good spirits,” but the former was seen laboring between drills and struggling to hit the net when working on his patient one-timer. At the time of this posting, there has been no official report on Nylander and his status for tonight, but we’re acting under the assumption that he will likely not play, and even if he does, he won’t be close to 100%. The pundits will use that absence as fodder to fade the Maple Leafs, as they are missing a key cog of their machine, but that injury information is not privileged, and it has been factored into the line. Despite that, the market has taken a stand in this game, and it cannot fathom that the Maple Leafs could compete here after getting their bums spanked in Game 1.

One could wager on the Leafs to win tonight at +115 or thereabouts, but instead, we are going to back the Maple Leafs to win the series at better than 2-1 odds. If the Leafs win tonight, they are going to be favored as they return home to Toronto, giving us tremendous value on this ticket. Even if Toronto doesn’t win tonight, we’ll still be alive with this wager, even if the swim back might be a little tougher.

Sherwood

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