Pinnacle +132 BET365 +130 Sportsinteraction +130 888Sport +130

Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Chicago +135 over Cleveland

7:40 PM EST. This play is not about Erick Fedde (RHP - CWS) and the White Sox, but there’s nothing wrong with his ERA (3.46) or xERA (3.67). His groundball rate (44%) is solid, as are the 41 Ks to 14 BBs across 39 IP and so too is his WHIP of 1.18. One could do a lot worse than Fedde at an inflated price like this.

On the surface, Ben Lively (RHP - CLE) might look like a tempting option to back against a White Sox team that is just 9-28 and 5-12 at home on the South Side, but forgive us for not being able to get excited about his 2.08 ERA, which is backed by an xERA of 3.67. We also cannot ignore his fortunate strand rate of 88.5%, nor can we gloss over his weak groundball rate of 29.6%. We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that Lively is 32 and has been a career minor leaguer who spent time in Korea.

Dude has never had a prolonged run of success in the bigs. Lively is over-performing here in 2024, at least on the surface, and his Statcast numbers show that despite his solid-looking start, he has given up loads of hard contact and he rarely gets batters to chase his mediocre stuff. Lively’s xERA with the Reds last year (88.2 IP) was 5.35, and there is nothing in this box that hints at another level, so it's best to look elsewhere if you're dying to spot an inflated price like this on the road because Ben Lively ain’t it.

Sherwood

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