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Posted at 11:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

NBA Playoffs Game 5: Eastern Conference First Round

Philadelphia @ New York

Wager: Philadelphia 1Q +1

7:10 PM EST. No series has been as intense or interesting as the Knicks and 76ers. Finding a way to overcome the Philly crowd (a strong Knicks’ fanbase made it easier), Jalen Brunson and his team executed their best defensive form in the fourth quarter of game four, holding the 76ers to just 16 points in the final 12 minutes. The visiting team surged late and pulled ahead in the final minutes of their last match, securing another W in a hard-fought series. Now, New York now has a commanding 3-1 lead and they’re back at Madison Square Garden tonight, where tensions are bound to be higher than ever. Not long ago, the 76ers were entering the playoffs on an 8-game winning streak, confident and focused on their ultimate goal. Now they’re in desperation mode again.

Game four just didn’t go the way Joel Embiid and his team thought it would. The big man still went to the free-throw line 14 times, but it was seven fewer attempts than game three and the free-throw disparity was more similar than it was in game three. New York kept the 76ers to just 35% from the field and 27% from the perimeter, by far the Sixers’ lowest marks in the series. The dynamic has been one of an ongoing war where each defense keeps punching back and surprising the other program, and we liked that to be Philly’s aim tonight.

Really it’s the Knicks resilience and team chemistry that has them leading this series, indications of a wall coached outfit with solid leadership on and off the court, but there’s no denying which roster has more star power. Joel Embiid is the reigning MVP and Tyrese Maxey won the NBA’s Most Improved Player award this season. The 76ers depth chart is full of veteran talent like Nicolas Batum, Tobias Harris, Kyle Lowry, Cameron Payne, and others who have been in the situations before. After one of the poorest playoff performances by any Philly roster, especially in the fourth quarter, we expect Nick Nurse’s team to use that fuel and come out aggressive at the start of game five.

Typically, the Knicks light to start games slow and methodical, measuring in their opponent and trying to lull them into their style of play. Because of that patient approach, New York hasn’t been a very good first-quarter team all season, 39-45-2 ATS for -12.85 units. The 76ers have won 3/4 first quarters so far in this series, and none will be quite as integral as this one. We would be lying if we said our first quarter angles have been thriving in these playoffs, but this wager feels too obvious and too advantageous not to take.

Farley

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