Pinnacle O51 -106 BET365 O50½ -115 Sportsinteraction O51½ +100 888Sport O50½ -115

Posted at 12:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Western Conference Playoffs, Round 1

L.A. Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks, Game 6

Wager: 1Q over 51

9:40 PM EST. It might be another very disappointing year for the Clippers. At certain points this season, like the stretch from December 26th to February 5th where the Clippers went 16-4, it seemed like LAC should finally be considered a threat to win an NBA title. Kawhi was back and looking better than ever, Paul George was comfortable in the #2 spot and consistent in his production, and even James Harden and Russell Westbrook seemed to have finally found a safe haven with their new team. LAC's supporting cast members are as robust and talented as it gets in the NBA, so their roster seemed as if it had very few flaws. And yet, as the All-Star break ended and the postseason-push began, we started to see many of the same inconsistencies that haunted the Clippers' franchise in seasons prior. Their offense still held up, ranked 8th overall from February 23rd to the end of the regular season, but their defense slipped to a pathetic 24th. Overall they became a 17th net-rated program, a team potentially on the brink of the play-in tournament.

The Clippers would eventually do enough to hang onto 4th spot in the West, although a 10-10 finish in the final month of the regular season didn't exactly inspire confidence from their supporters. They also started the postseason without Kawhi Leonard. Still, the Clippers finished the regular season as the 4th best offense in the NBA, a mark that speaks to the overwhelming shooting talent of their roster. In all other ways: defense, team chemistry, their performance against the spread (40-47, 46%), nothing was consistent or reliable all season. We take that seriously heading into tonight.

The Clippers probably shouldn't be 8-point underdogs, they're just too talented, even without Kawhi, but we understand it. The duo of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic has been lethal (58 ppg average in this series), and it's obvious that the Mavericks are a 2.0 version of who they were last season. Jason Kidd has his boys playing menacing defense and showing true team chemistry, a group that's come together and rallied behind their two dynamic stars. At home Dallas is a top 7 offense and we saw remnants of that in game 4, although a 16-point first quarter proved too much to overcome in the end. Either way, building off their momentum and hoping to end this series on Friday night in front of their fans, the probabilities are high that Dallas will be able to produce at an efficient clip in tonight's battle. The question mark remains with the L.A. Clippers, but this is the moment where we take a step back and recognize their true identity.

While the Clippers' defense can show up here and there, their offense has never strayed too far away. Among all 30 outfits, NBA Advanced Stats ranks LAC as the 4th best offense this season. Paul George, who must pick up the role of "star" without Kawhi, scored just 15 points on 4-13 from the field in game 5, a big part of why they couldn't keep pace with the Mavericks. That'll change tonight. Ty Lue is still one of the better game-planners in the association, as most players and coaches have attested to, and after a 93-point scoreboard in game 5, we expect positive regression immediately for the underdog. At least, we expect regression in the points-department. The Clippers will likely lose tonight, but they should come out very aggressive and in search of an early lead, which we love for more initial points in this contest.

Farley

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