Pinnacle U98½ -113 BET365 U98½ -115 Sportsinteraction U98½ -115

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

NBA Playoffs Game 5: Eastern Conference First Round

Orlando @ Cleveland

Wager: TT under 98½

8:10 PM EST. After two games, it looks like the Cleveland Cavaliers would run away with their opening series, but a short trip to Disney World has given the young Orlando Magic hope. A complete 180 from what they showed on the road, the home team Magic blew out the Cavaliers in the last two contests, dropping 233 points on a top-tier defense. Other than the obvious comforts of being in your town with your family and friends and the support of your crowd, we don’t really know why the Magic are so much better at home. But they are, especially on offense. 

From what we can tell, young bucks like Paulo Banchero and Jalen Suggs and the Wagner Brothers seem to settle down at the Kia Center, and more confident versions of themselves show up. Their offense was humming so effectively that they shot 56% from the floor and 46% from beyond the arc in game four, both markedly above their season norm (47.5%, 35%).

But we know what their season norm is and it’s nothing like the team we saw on Sunday. The Orlando Magic are an average offense at best. NBA advanced stats will tell you that they are 22nd in offensive efficiency, a bottom 9 rank. And they’re even worse on the road. Of course we saw the most concerning version of the Orlando offense, nervous and trigger shy in Cleveland, and it resulted in an 83-point game one and 86-point game two.

There’s a case to be made that the Magic have settled in and we should expect bigger scoreboards from here on. There are two problems with that assumption. First of all, Orlando has been worse on the road all season. This is not new. Secondly, and most importantly, the moment is about to get very big for a very inexperienced roster. The Cavs were a lot like the Magic in their last two seasons, clearly a team on the rise but not quite ready to take that leap. Cleveland has eclipsed their past form, steadier this season, remaining among the top in the Eastern Conference all year. Orlando just isn’t there yet, nor have they been in these situations before.

Normally, the Cavs defense is even better on the road, ranked 2nd overall this season, but they didn’t exactly thrive in the land of Mickey Mouse. J.B. Bickerstaff and his team were embarrassed in two games at Orlando, allowing a subpar offense to rally and tie the series. Along with the natural regression that we’ve come to expect from the Magic on the road, we also anticipate a more focused and fired up Cavaliers defense. And it helps that now they’re in front of their own raucous crowd. No matter what way you shake it, Orlando is going to have a tough time reaching triple digits. 

Farley

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