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Posted at 10:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Seminfinals

New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers, Game 3

Gainbridge Fieldhouse

Wager: Indiana 1H -5½

7:10 PM EST. Oddsmakers immediately released a strong spread on the 0-2 Pacers for good reason, and much of it isn’t because they’re back at home with their backs against the wall. Jaylen Brunson is officially questionable for game three, although we can’t imagine he’ll sit. Either way, the sensational NYK point guard is unlikely to be 100% for Game 3, and now he doesn’t have the roar of a Big Apple crowd behind him. Meanwhile, we’re well aware that OG Anunoby will not play, just two days after incurring a hamstring injury on Wednesday. Anunoby isn’t an easy guy to replace, a true Swiss Army, knife and physical body on the court they can do pretty much everything for the surging next. Now more pressure is on Josh Hart and Dante, DiVincenzo and other supporting cast members to keep the train going, this time in hostile territory.

Of course, it doesn’t hurt that the Pacers happen to be an incredibly effective team at home. The Pacers are 29-15 in Indy this year, 24-18-2 ATS (57%), and all their offensive marks get better. The Pacers are already the most prolific scoring outfit in the NBA not-named the Celtics, but behind the support of their own fans they’re almost impossible to stop. They averaged 125.5 ppg at Gainbridge Fieldhouse this season. Indiana has won both first halves against the Knicks already, performing their typical shtick early. It’s the later stages of the game, particularly late in the fourth quarter, where Brunson and the Knicks have been more clutch.

This is why we refuse to take a full game wager on tonight‘s chalk. Indiana is clearly a very good team. Following Rick Carlisle‘s incessant complaints about foul disparity in Games 1 and 2, the Pacers should have a considerable early advantage, particularly with a raucous fanbase behind them. The injury to OG Anunoby will add pressure to a defense that’s already banged up, and one that’s adjusting to life without Mitchell Robinson, again. The damn-near miraculous performances by Jalen Brunson and his two former Villanova comrades will keep us away from trusting Indiana for all 4 quarters. Early dominance from a home team that desperately needs a win? That we can get behind.

Farley

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