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Posted at 10:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Seminfinals

Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves, Game 3

Target Center

Wager: Denver 1Q Moneyline

9:40 PM EST. The Denver Nuggets were given a full work-week to think about their transgressions and ponder a situation they never thought they’d be in. Down 0-2, the reigning champs have seemed completely overwhelmed by the upstart Timberwolves, a team that’s played them hard all season and certainly appears ready to take the next step towards an NBA championship. All the praise has been aimed at Minnesota, and rightfully so, while Denver has been the butt of jokes and the victim of every other pundits’ critiques. It would be fair to say that the Nuggets have never faced this kind of adversity in the playoffs, so it’s hard to know what to expect from a betting perspective as we approach Game 3. 

As a handicapper, Game 3 would be an easy game to dismiss for that reason. We want to have faith and put our money down on the Denver Nuggets, last year's title holders, equipped with a guy who just won his third NBA MVP award, and a program that's been as elite as any over the last few seasons. Yet, for the full game, against this brand of the Minnesota Timberwolves and at their opponent's arena, it's hard to support the Nuggets in any regard. The T-Wolves' defense has been absolutely suffocating, almost violent when they're guarding any member of their arch-rival, and behind their home crowd life will be even more difficult for the defending champs. As good as Denver's offense can be, they've only scored 179 points in two games, hitting 47% of their shots in Game 1 and a pathetic 35% in Game 2. Because of everything we've seen, we can't just blindly bet on the Nuggets' simply because we expect regression, but there is one angle on the underdog that has more value than most.

We know a few things about these two teams that oddsmakers aren't recognizing, at least not in the presented lines. Firstly, the Timberwolves are the worst first quarter team ATS and they have been all season. For context, the Bulls, Hornets, and Jazz are 2nd, 3rd, and 4th worse at covering in the first quarter, not exactly the cream of the crop of NBA programs. At home and riding plenty of momentum, that could regress for Minnesota tonight, but there are plenty of reasons to believe it won't. Firstly, Nikola Jokic always plays the entire first quarter. The three-time MVP is considered among most NBA teams and coaches as the best player in the association, so yes, that matters. Furthermore, when Denver loses in the first quarter, they've only beaten Minnesota one time over the last two seasons (in their finale on April 10th of this year). That's right: over the last 15 games between the Nuggets and Timberwolves, 8 contests in the regular season and 7 in the postseason since the start of the 2022-23 schedule, Denver has only beaten their rival once when they lose the first quarter. 

It doesn't hurt that Denver is second only to Boston this season in first quarter ATS performance, covering 60% (53-36) for +11.4 units. Down 0-2, this series is conceivably over if the Nuggets don't find a way to survive and win tonight. When Minnesota keeps the game close or wins in the first 12 minutes, their defense is almost impossible to infiltrate. We've seen enough evidence of that this season and certainly in their current battle against the Nuggets. They're a very dangerous, punishing outfit with a lead. But Mike Malone knows that, and he and his roster are coming off one of their worst performances in a very long time, with a finishing total that was lower than any other affair this season. Expect Jokic and his teammates to respond.

Farley

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