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Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Seminfinals

Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Paycom Arena

Wager: Dallas +5

9:40 PM EST. Playoff spreads are usually sharper than what we see in the regular season, but that doesn’t mean that oddsmakers don’t make mistakes. Oklahoma City deserves credit for how well they played on Tuesday night, eventually overwhelming what looked like a lethargic Dallas Maverick squad, one in even worse condition when their star doesn’t perform well. Luka Doncic had a terrible Game 1, scoring just 19 points in 41 minutes and shooting just 6-19 (31.5%) from the field. His individual point differential was even more horrid, -21 for the contest. The Mavericks weren’t aided by Kyrie Irving either, who struggled severely in the first half before contributing most of his 20 points in the second.

It just wasn’t enough from the Mavericks, who shot just 39.3% as a team from the floor. The world’s biggest NBA-hater could probably tell you that OKC was going to come out aggressive and full of energy at home for their initial showdown, a big reason why we liked them early. Eventually that proved to be the case, as a deep Thunder roster tore apart Dallas’ defense, a unit that’s rose to the occasion many times the past two months. We suspect they'll rise up again in Game 2.

This is the part of a handicap that gets tricky, since anticipating regression is rarely automatic. Anticipating regression on a team we trust is a different story. The Mavericks finished the regular season as a top 4 net-rated team in the final month of action, a full 10 spots in front of their opponent tonight. As they got better defensively, the marriage of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving began functioning at a much higher level, with each superstar vowing the utmost respect to their fellow, high-profile colleague. It’s been a major catalyst for a team that seemed to lack unity at the same point last year. Other new additions like Daniel Gafford, Derrick Lively Jr., and PJ Washington fit the Dallas roster like perfect puzzle pieces, willing to scrape and claw and support their star-duo and follow their lead. And while we can’t explain every reason why, Jason Kidd clearly knows how to elevate a defense. In the final month of the regular season, they ascended to a top 5 unit and they haven’t slowed down since. In their last series against the Clippers, the Mavs kept a prolific, veteran-led program to only 100 ppg.

OKC might be the #1 seed in the West, but no analyst worth their salt would claim that they’re any better than Denver or Minnesota. We don’t think they’re that much better than Dallas, either. Jason Kidd’s team has shown grit and exceptional team chemistry in these spots before, and his roster has way more experience in big games. Oddsmakers are inflating the spread a little too much, and as always, we will take advantage.

Farley

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