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Posted on April 22 prior to Game 2. Odds subject to change.

Toronto +205 to Win Series

The sky is falling in Hogtown after the Maple Leafs lost Game 1 in Boston, and so now it’s time to blow up the whole damn thing. Fire Brad Treliving, fire Sheldon Keefe, and trade everyone not named Auston Matthews; the Leafs are toast. We’ve heard and read it all since the final buzzer sounded on Saturday night, just like we heard it all last year after Toronto lost Game 1 to Tampa Bay. We get it; it’s hard to be a Leafs fan, but the “Chicken Little” hot takes every time this team faces a setback, either minor or major, are exhausting.

The 5-1 final on Saturday night looks bad on paper, but there are moments in games that can change everything, and for the Maple Leafs, that moment came down 1-0 in the second period when 69-goal man Matthews rang a shot off the crossbar. If it had hit the back of the net, it would have put Toronto right back in it and potentially tamed the boisterous Boston crowd. Instead, the puck would be in the back of the Maple Leaf net in what felt like a blink of an eye, and it was 2-0 Boston. After that, the Leafs took a couple of bad penalties that led to a pair of Jake DeBrusk power-play makers, and it was 4-0 B’s after 40. Each side would pot tallies in the third; however, the Leafs did have life over that final 20, outshooting Boston 12-3 in the final frame and 36-to-24 overall.

Going back to the last time they met in the playoffs, the Bruins have now beaten the Maple Leafs eight games in a row, which sounds impressive and even a bit daunting, but that is just another useless talking point for the pundits. However, it’s worth mentioning because those pundits influence the market. The reason the B’s won so lopsidedly was not because they have the Leafs’ “number” or because they were in their heads; it’s because Jeremy Swayman was way better than Ilya Samsonov between the pipes. Look, it’s not like the Leafs didn’t have their chances, as Swayman had to make a bunch of second-chance saves, and he kept his team in the game when really they were not playing that well in their own end.

The big blue elephant in the room is, of course, the status of William Nylander, who missed only his second game with an injury since 2016 when he was scratched with an undisclosed ailment in advance of Game 1. Nylander had not practiced on Friday, but he did return to the ice yesterday, although reports are not all that promising. Nylander was said by defenseman Jake McCabe to be in “good spirits,” but the former was seen laboring between drills and struggling to hit the net when working on his patient one-timer. At the time of this posting, there has been no official report on Nylander and his status for tonight, but we’re acting under the assumption that he will likely not play, and even if he does, he won’t be close to 100%. The pundits will use that absence as fodder to fade the Maple Leafs, as they are missing a key cog of their machine, but that injury information is not privileged, and it has been factored into the line. Despite that, the market has taken a stand in this game, and it cannot fathom that the Maple Leafs could compete here after getting their bums spanked in Game 1.

One could wager on the Leafs to win tonight at +115 or thereabouts, but instead, we are going to back the Maple Leafs to win the series at better than 2-1 odds. If the Leafs win tonight, they are going to be favored as they return home to Toronto, giving us tremendous value on this ticket. Even if Toronto doesn’t win tonight, we’ll still be alive with this wager, even if the swim back might be a little tougher.

Sherwood

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