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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Cincinnati over San Diego

4:10 PM EST. The Reds dropped a 6-4 decision yesterday, making this the rubber match for the series win, and they will send Graham Ashcraft (RHP - CIN) out for his sixth start of the season. Ashcraft is coming off a one-run, seven-inning effort against the Rangers last Friday night, but the Reds could not muster much offense in a 2-1 loss that night. Most notably in that turn, Ashcraft did not walk a batter, bringing his strikeout-to-walk ratio to 26:7 on the season. Across the 28.2 innings he has pitched, Ashcraft has an ERA of 4.40, but his xERA is over a run lower at 3.36. He also boasts an elite groundball rate of 52.8%, and he’s been unlucky with a higher-than-average Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) of .298.

Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove (RHP - SD) is a dumpster fire, coming off another disastrous start in which he gave up seven runs on eight hits over just 3.2 IP on Friday, tagged with another loss. There is no sugarcoating anything about what Musgrove has going on at the moment as his ERA is a bloated 6.94, backed by an xERA of 7.36. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and his groundball rate is in the tank. Musgrove cannot be trusted to spot a price like this in his current form, and the fact that his team is struggling to score runs does not make that proposition any easier to stomach. As a favorite, Musgrove has to be faded, and we’re coming right at him today.

Sherwood

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