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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Cleveland over Houston

8:10 PM EST. We acknowledge that Triston McKenzie (RHP - CLE) is not the most reliable starting pitcher on the planet at the moment and that he might be working through some aches and pains, but if we’re being honest, we’d bet on the Guardians at this price even if your grandma was starting for them. As for McKenzie, there were signs that he could be on the right track, as he struck out seven Red Sox in a 75-pitch, 4 IP start last Thursday. It was the second start in a row in which McKenzie looked serviceable, and while we don’t know how long he’s going to last tonight, we also don’t give a flying crap.

We are here to fade Justin Verlander (RHP - HOU), who is priced tonight like he is in his prime. We cannot stress enough just how absurd the premium that must be paid tonight to bet on the Astros with this old stiff on the mound. Not only is Verlander working his way back from an injury that delayed the start of his season, but through 10.1 innings, there are some red flags. In his last outing versus the Cubs, Verlander did not allow a run, but he only pitched 4.1 innings and he struggled mightily with his control, walking four and getting the hook after 95 pitches. His strand rate in that game was a perfect 100%. While the sample size is small, Verlander’s surface ERA is a sparkling 1.74, while his xERA is an inflated 4.46. Maybe Verlander is going to return to his prime self, but he’s not there yet, and last we checked, the Guardians are a pretty damn good ball club that is 11-6 on the road. Overlay.

Sherwood

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