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Posted at 2:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Kansas City over Toronto

7:07 PM EST. This is a rematch from last week, as Cole Ragans (RHP - KC) picked up the win, allowing one run on three hits and three walks over five innings while striking out four before a four-hour rain delay wiped out the rest of that game. In his 30 IP across six starts, Ragans has 37 Ks, an elite swing-and-miss rate of 14.6%, and a first-pitch strike rate of 65.4%. Ragans has a 3.90 ERA and an xERA of 3.65, but he has also been unlucky with an inflated Batting Average of Balls in Play of .381.

Jose Berrios (RHP - TOR) took the loss on Thursday in Kansas City, allowing two runs on three hits and three walks while striking out just one over five innings. Not only is that one K a red flag, but so too are Berrios’ underlying numbers, which just don’t jive with his sparkling surface stats. More notably, his ERA is just 1.23, but his xERA is a bloated 4.43. A big reason for that discrepancy is the fact that Berrios has a near-perfect (97.8%) strand rate and a low BABIP. Further to the lack of Ks that Berrios is generating this season, his strikeout rate is down, as is his swing and miss rate. A correction to the bad is likely coming, and while we cannot predict if it will be tonight, the price on the Royals is right to find out.

Sherwood

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