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Posted at 2:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Cincinnati over San Diego

9:40 PM EST. Nick Martinez (RHP - CIN) returns to San Diego where he spent time as both a starter and a reliever in the last two seasons, a role he finds himself in with his new digs in Cincinnati. Martinez is making another start after having some success in a couple of long relief roles, as he’s replacing the injured Frankie Montas. Martinez is nothing special, but he does bring some nice underlying numbers into this start, including an xERA of 3.91, which is lower than his surface ERA of 5.48. Martinez has also issued just two walks in 23 IP, and while his start versus the Phillies was ugly on paper, he had no help with a bloated Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) of .435 and a low strand rate of 62.5%.

The Padres lost their fifth game in a row last night, 5-2, to these Reds in a game where the Friars could only muster four hits. Tonight, San Diego will send Yu Darvish (RHP - SD) out to stop the madness, but that might be a tough ask as he returns from the IL. Darvish went on the IL on April 17 with neck tightness, and before being shut down, he did not pitch well. Over his first five starts this season, Darvish posted a 4.18 ERA, backed by an xERA of 4.58. He also saw a significant decrease in his groundball rate (41.6% to 31.3%), as well as a decrease in his strikeout rate and an uptick in his walk rate. Perhaps Darvish was just a little sore, and that was the cause of his troubles, but dude has been on the decline in recent years, yet he still has great respect in the market and he’s still priced like he’s in his prime. Even if Darvish does pitch a gem here, the Friars are in a tailspin, and the inflated price the Reds are taking back presents tremendous value.

Sherwood

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