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Posted at 2:00 PM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tottenham +120 (To Lift the Trophy) over Manchester United

UEFA Europa League Final

3:00 PM ET. We don’t need to explain Manchester United. They’re the Yankees, the Duke, the bluebloods of global football. Even when the football isn’t elite, the badge carries weight — and with that comes a market premium. When there’s silverware at stake, United are rarely priced at face value.

The storylines are all red: United’s dramatic, highlight-reel run to San Mamés has sucked the oxygen out of the room. They dismantled Athletic Bilbao 3–0 at this very stadium in the semifinals. Before that came the Lyon miracle: down two goals on aggregate with 10 minutes left in extra time, they scored three times to complete a 5–4 stunner. The media machine is humming: “United are back,” they say. “The Champions League beckons.” And just like that, Tottenham are cast into the shadows. That’s a mistake.

Spurs didn’t need miracles to get here. No dramatics, no viral headlines — just business handled. They calmly dispatched Bodo/Glimt and brushed aside Eintracht Frankfurt. Along the way, they beat this same United side twice in league play by a combined score of 4–0. But somehow, they’re still the afterthought. That disconnect is precisely where the value lies.

United opened at -120 to lift the trophy — a clear sign that the market is buying the narrative. Spurs, who beat them twice already this year, were offered at even money. Now, after the money has poured in on United, Tottenham sit at +120. Full-time odds are even more revealing: Spurs opened around +190 and have ballooned to +230 in a match that, by every rational metric, is a coin flip.

Look at the league table. Spurs finished 17th with 38 points. United? Just one point better in 16th. These aren’t European juggernauts. These are two misfiring giants — and this is no mismatch.

Tottenham are absolutely live here, and the price demands action. Whether you play them inside 90 or take the safer route by backing them to lift the trophy, the value is undeniable. We’ll opt for the latter, understanding that cup finals at this level often veer into chaos — and should this one go the distance, it’s worth remembering that United’s Andre Onana has a track record of leaking goals late and has been a liability in shootouts.

If you want to split the play, taking Spurs +230 in 90 minutes for one unit and +120 to lift the trophy for another is more than defensible. But make no mistake: the team from North London is the side to back here. Spurs to lift the Europa League trophy. That’s the bet.

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