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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Sunderland (To Win in Full Time) +230 over Coventry City

Coventry Building Society Arena – Coventry, England

EFL Championship Playoffs – First Leg

3:00 PM ET. There’s a lot to unpack here, so let’s start with the obvious: Sunderland haven’t defeated Coventry City in over 25 years. The Sky Blues are unbeaten in 13 straight against the Black Cats, a streak that not only fuels narrative but artificially inflates Coventry’s market price heading into this playoff semifinal.

Layer on top of that Sunderland’s current form — five straight losses — and it’s no surprise Coventry has become a wildly popular side in global betting markets today. Public money is pouring in on the hosts. The form, the history, the venue — all of it screams Coventry and yet... the bookmakers quietly disagree.

Check the “To Qualify” market: Sunderland are favored at -125, with Coventry offered at even money. That’s not a typo. Despite the losing streak, despite the drought, despite all the perceived momentum on Coventry’s side, the Black Cats are priced as the likelier team to reach Wembley. That tells us everything.

So let’s look at the real play: taking Sunderland to win in 90 minutes at +230. That’s not just good value — that’s a misalignment. When a team is favored to qualify but priced like a clear underdog to win the opening leg, the value practically presents itself. Even Sunderland +0.5 sits at -150, suggesting this game is far closer than the market perception would have you believe.

Coventry may be the trendy pick, but trendiness doesn’t win playoff ties — execution does. Sunderland are better than recent results suggest, and the market knows it. At this number, we’re backing the Black Cats to flip the script and steal the first leg outright.

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