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Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Legia Warsaw +120 (To Qualify) over Molde

Polish Army Stadium – Warsaw, Poland

UEFA Conference League

4:00 PM ET. This is a unique play because we’re not taking Legia Warsaw to win in full time, but rather to qualify for the next round of the UEFA Conference League. Let’s break it down.

Warsaw is a -120 favorite to win in 90 minutes, while Molde sits at +300. The draw, at +270, is more likely than a Molde victory, which is notable. Molde took the first leg 3-2 in Norway, meaning they just need a draw or a win to advance. Legia, on the other hand, must win by one to force extra time (and potentially penalties) or by two to send Molde packing outright. With that laid out, here’s why we’re taking this angle.

The logic is simple: if the market expects Legia to win in regulation, then either (a) they win outright and we cash a plus-money ticket on a favorite, or (b) they win in extra time, and we’re still holding a live +120 ticket in a 50/50 scenario. Either way, it’s value. Oddsmakers have taken a strong position on Legia, and we’re listening. Whether they get it done in 90 or 120 minutes, we don’t care—just get it done. Backing The Legionnaires to qualify is the sharp move.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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