Widnes @ Witton Albion
Witton Albion (Draw No Bet) +200 over Widnes

Pinnacle +200 BET365 +200 Sportsinteraction +200 888Sport +200

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Witton Albion +200 (Draw No Bet) over Widnes

Wincham Park – Northwich, England

England Northern League Division One

United Kingdom Soccer

2:45 PM ET. The betting market is often a fickle beast, and nowhere is that more evident than in the lower tiers of English football. If this game had been played just a couple of weeks ago, all the talkwould have been about Witton Albion’s scorching form. "The Albs" were steamrolling their way up the table, clawing out of the relegation zone and into the top half of the Northern Premier League West Division. That was until a frustrating home draw against Mossley, followed by a road loss at Hednesford, put a pin in their rising stock.

Now, Widnes is the market darling. Sitting atop the table with just one loss since mid-October, "The Black and Whites" are one win away from putting a stranglehold on their promotion hopes. But a closer look reveals a team that has benefited from some rather fortunate circumstances. Four of Widnes' 11 wins in their current run came against teams reduced to 10 men. Even then, two of those victories were by a single goal, and one required a penalty deep in stoppage time to squeak past Newcastle. In fact, Widnes has made a habit of scoring late, snatching points with last-gasp efforts against Wythenshawe Amateurs and Bootle. If Widnes were a college basketball team, they’d be sky-high in KenPom’s Luck Quotient.

So, what happens when the breaks stop going their way? If Widnes were mid-table instead of leading the pack, would they be such a strong favorite here? Absolutely not. Yet, because the market chases results instead of evaluating context, we get a prime opportunity to fade Widnes and back a hungry Witton Albion side at home. The Albs are available at +225 to win or draw, but the best value play is the Draw No Bet at +200. That way, we cash if Witton Albion takes the full three points while securing a push if they grind out a draw. Given Widnes’ reliance on late-game fortune, we’re happy to take a bet that protects us from another "Fergie-time" miracle.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

Sharkies

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Our Pick

Witton Albion (Draw No Bet) +200 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.00)

Club Brugge (To Win in Full Time) +210 over Atalanta