Today's Free Picks for

Pinnacle -½ +137 BET365 -½ +137 Sportsinteraction -½ +137 888Sport -½ +137
Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.
AS Monaco +137 (To Win in Full Time) over Aston Villa
Stade-King Louis II – Monaco City, Monaco
UEFA Champions League
12:45 PM ET. The English Premier League carries an air of superiority in global football, and Aston Villa’s presence as a +200 underdog in this spot reflects the market’s overvaluation of EPL sides in European competitions. That brand bias skews perception, as the Villains are being priced as if they are more than capable of handling a Monaco side that, despite recent struggles, remains a formidable opponent on their day.
Aston Villa’s road woes are well-documented. Over their last 11 away matches, they’ve posted a goal differential of -7 and managed just four wins. Contrast this with their home form, where they’ve lost only once in the same span, boasting a +6 goal differential, and the discrepancy becomes glaring. Away from the comforts of Villa Park, the Villains are a shadow of their home selves.
Monaco, for their part, has had a rough patch, with losses to Arsenal, Paris Saint-Germain, and Reims (on penalties). However, context is key. Losses to elite sides like Arsenal and PSG are far from indictments, as both are among the top clubs in Europe. Aston Villa, while solid, doesn’t belong in that echelon, and this represents a significant step down in class for “Les Rouge et Blanc.”
The market may view Monaco’s recent form as a red flag, but the pricing tells a different story. At +137, Monaco is being positioned as the rightful favorite, suggesting the oddsmakers see value in the Ligue 1 side to impose their will at home
This is a classic case of the market overvaluing the EPL badge while undervaluing the nuances of form and context. Monaco at home against a Villa side that struggles on the road is a bet we’re more than willing to make.
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Our Pick
AS Monaco (To Win in Full Time) +137 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)