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Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.
SPLIT BET – AC MONZA / DRAW over Fiorentina
Stadio Brianteo – Monza, Italy
Italy Serie A
The Play (Using our Two-Unit System):
AC Monza To Win (Full Time): One Unit at +310 to Net 2.1 Units
DRAW (Full Time): One Unit at +240 to Net 1.4 Units
2:45 PM ET. This wager is all about fading Fiorentina, who comes into this match as a market darling at a heavily inflated price. Fiorentina, sitting sixth in the Serie A table, is being given too much respect here against an AC Monza side languishing in last place. The Violets are currently offered at a typical -110 for a full-time win, but that number feels wildly disconnected from reality.
Let’s unpack this. Yes, Monza has won just one game this season and remains winless at home, but Fiorentina’s current form is anything but convincing. They haven’t secured a win in four games, a stretch that includes road losses to Juventus and Bologna and underwhelming home results against Napoli and Udinese. Against weaker competition like Cagliari and Como, Fiorentina eked out two wins but hardly dominated. A 2-0 win over Como was straightforward enough, but they nearly coughed up the game against Cagliari before surviving a spirited second half. So, when we see them priced here as a road favorite, we’re left scratching our heads. This isn’t a "buy-low" opportunity on Fiorentina—it’s the market falling into a trap.
Let’s shift the focus to Monza. While their record paints an ugly picture, recent performances suggest they’re far more competitive than the table indicates. In their last six outings, Monza has managed just one point, but every match was decided by a single goal. Against Cagliari on January 5th, they were down 2-1 before a 63rd-minute red card derailed their comeback hopes. Prior to that, they drew level late at Parma (despite playing with 10 men) before conceding a heartbreaking injury-time goal. Even against Serie A powerhouse Juventus, Monza pushed the visitors to the brink, ultimately falling 2-1 in a hard-fought affair.
The narrative here is clear: Monza may be in poor form on paper, but they’re not rolling over. Their ability to stay competitive against stronger sides gives us every reason to believe they can force a result here. Meanwhile, Fiorentina has been uninspired, with their last three matches featuring moments of brilliance but far too much sloppiness.
What we’re really doing here is fading a false favorite. Serie A is no stranger to low-scoring matches and draws, and Monza’s resilience makes them more than capable of pulling off a surprise. The Violets don’t deserve this kind of market confidence, and the +310 price on Monza and +240 on the draw both offer tremendous value.
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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose.
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Our Pick
AC Monza to Win or Draw +240 (Risking 1 units - To Win: 2.10)