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Posted at 8:15 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Union Berlin +155 (Win in Full Time) over F.C. HEIDENHEIM 1846

Voith Arena – Heidenheim, Germany

Germany Bundesliga I

9:30 AM ET. We’ve had this one circled all week. Union Berlin opened as a modest +125 favorite to win in regulation, but that number has steadily crept up, most notably in the overnight markets. Now sitting at +155, the market’s movement presents us with a juicy opportunity to back “The Iron Ones” at an inflated price. Let’s break this one down.

Both sides enter this fixture in dreadful form. Neither has won in their last five outings, which might explain why the market is hammering the home side. Heidenheim, sitting at around +180 to win outright, appears to be drawing interest based on the perceived “safety” of playing at home. That narrative, however, is pure fool’s gold.

You’ll hear plenty about Heidenheim’s unbeaten streak at home against Union Berlin, which spans four matches. You’ll also hear about their “strong” home-field advantage. But what the market is ignoring is context—and the fact that Heidenheim has just one win at Voith Arena this season. If that’s what qualifies as “advantageous,” count us out.

Let’s dig into the numbers. Union Berlin has conceded just 19 goals this season, second only to Bundesliga juggernaut Bayern Munich. In contrast, Heidenheim has leaked 33 goals, ranking third-worst in the league. Union’s defensive discipline and ability to grind out results make them a tough nut to crack, particularly against a side like Heidenheim, whose -10 goal differential screams vulnerability.

The market often misinterprets home field as a trump card, but here it’s a trap. Heidenheim bleeds goals, and Union Berlin is built to exploit that weakness. While the hosts will try to open things up, Union Berlin will happily sit back, frustrate, and strike when the opportunity arises. The Iron Ones have all the tools to control this match and leave Heidenheim licking their wounds after 90 minutes.

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For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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