Pinnacle   +105     BET365 +105   Sportsinteraction  +105  888port  +105

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

St. Louis +105 over Philadelphia

7:00 PM ET. OT included. We’re not here to stand on ceremony. The Blues blew a 5-3 third-period lead to these Flyers six days ago, and the market’s takeaway is “Philly beat them, do it again.” Ours is the opposite. St. Louis should have pocketed two points that night, they outplayed Philadelphia for long stretches, and they collapsed late because that’s what fragile teams do when variance is kicking them in the teeth. That collapse is now built into this price — and that gives us the buy signal.

St. Louis followed that loss with two more setbacks, but don’t confuse the results with the process. Their game in Toronto was one of their better 60-minute efforts of the month. They were physical, structured, and engaged for once, and still lost on a Nylander strike with under a minute left in OT. Another coin-flip that landed wrong. That’s been the Blues’ season: not good enough to survive bad bounces, and getting all the bad bounces anyway.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, comes in off a charity point against St. Louis and then a humbling 5-1 beatdown by Dallas. The Flyers’ lone goal came on a cosmetic third-period marker while the Stars spent most of the night treating them like pylons. The Flyers haven’t been good lately — one win in their last four — and their “effort” in Dallas looked like a team still tired from the Blues comeback and wishing the schedule gave them a nap instead of a hockey game.

The Flyers have a major problem: their starts have been awful, and they’re not built to chase. Sean Couturier said it plainly — they’re playing from behind every night. That’s fine against a team that collapses defensively like St. Louis used to, but not against a version of the Blues that just played their most intentional, physical game in weeks.

That’s really the crux here. St. Louis is showing signs of snapping out of the funk. The Flyers are showing signs of sinking into one. The market — as usual — prices the recent final scores, not the trajectory. We’ll fade that.

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