Pinnacle  +195   BET365   +195 Sportsinteraction  +195 888port  +195

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Toronto +195 over Florida

Game 3 – Eastern Conference Semifinal

Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL

7:00 PM ET. OT included. If history and perception made the line, the Maple Leafs would be the underdog in every postseason game they play — and here they are again. A team that’s gone 2-0 against the defending champs is taking back an infalted price in Game 3. You see what’s happening here? The market refuses to believe in this Leafs group, and that hesitation is our invitation.

There’s nothing fluky about what Toronto has done. They’ve gone into this series and outplayed Florida in two different ways: Game 1, they controlled it. Game 2, they chased and answered. You want to see if a team’s legit? Watch how they respond to getting punched in the mouth. Toronto responded. Mitch Marner buried the winner, and Joseph Woll was steady again in relief. This isn’t luck — it’s resolve.

However, the price still treats Florida like the better team, because they’re the defending champs and because they’re “due.” That’s narrative. Let’s break it down instead.

Florida’s got problems. Sergei Bobrovsky is leaking — 8 even-strength goals allowed in two games, and that’s with Auston Matthews and John Tavares combining for zero goals. You think that’s sustainable? Matthews and Tavares scored 71 combined during the regular season. They’re due — and if they wake up, this series could be a runaway.

Meanwhile, the Leafs are getting elite play from William Nylander, who has six goals and seven assists in eight playoff games. He’s been Toronto’s engine, and he’s skating circles around a Florida top six that’s gone completely quiet. Sam Reinhart? Zero points. Tkachuk? One assist. Barkov? One goal. The Panthers’ third line is carrying them right now — and that’s not a recipe for sustained playoff success.

Joseph Woll might not be a household name, but he’s the better goalie right now. He’s composed, economical, and gives his team a chance. He’s also 4-0 in his last four playoff starts. This isn’t a soft spot — it’s a breakout.

There’s a narrative that says Florida can’t go down 0-3 at home, that they’ll find a way. But the line is based on that emotion — not what we’ve seen. What we’ve seen is a Leafs team dictating play, getting stronger, and still not hitting on all cylinders offensively. That’s a scary thought.

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