Pinnacle  +150   BET365   +150 Sportsinteraction  150 888port  +150

Posted Monday, May 5 before Game 1. Odds are subject to change

Toronto +150 over Florida (Series Wager)

We’ve been here before. The Maple Leafs finally get over a mental hurdle, and the market treats it like a ceiling instead of a stepping stone. Two years ago it was Tampa. This year it was Ottawa. But a win is a win, and now Toronto draws the defending Cup champs — a team they’ve already been priced out of beating. But hockey is played on the ice, not the betting board, and what we’ve seen on the ice from Toronto suggests this team might be mispriced.

Let’s be real: Florida is legit. They’re deep, they’re disciplined (when it counts), and they’ve built a nasty habit of playing their best when the lights are brightest. But they’re also being treated like unbeatable juggernauts. They’re not. The Panthers took advantage of a Lightning squad that was running on fumes. The Bolts were top-heavy and aging, and Florida handled them like a team that’s done it before. Good for them. But Toronto’s a different animal — younger, faster, deeper — and most importantly, hungrier. The Leafs aren’t chasing ghosts anymore. They’re chasing wins.

Craig Berube has changed the Leafs’ identity. This isn’t pond hockey Toronto, trying to out-skill teams 6-5. This is trench warfare. Toronto’s defence in Round 1 was dialed in. Chris Tanev and Joel Edmundson were blocking everything. Jake McCabe is a playoff-type player through and through. And then there’s Anthony Stolarz — a stabilizing force in net who, unlike some of his predecessors, doesn’t flinch. Add in a five-forward power play that’s quietly humming, and you’ve got a Leafs team that can win dirty — something you couldn’t say a year ago.

As for matchups, there’s plenty to like. Florida’s penalty parade has been a thing all year, and Toronto’s power play is poised to punish it — especially if Auston Matthews and William Nylander continue to draw attention the way they did in Round 1. Meanwhile, Florida’s special teams edge isn’t what it once was — and while they were opportunistic against Tampa, Toronto’s discipline, structure, and defensive reads should present a stiffer challenge. Throw in X-factors like Matthew Knies (who looks playoff-built), and what you have is a team that looks — dare we say it — ready.

You want to buy Florida at an inflated price? Fine, but we aren’t playing that game. Not in a series this close. The Leafs are live here — way more than the market suggests — and at +150, the value is squarely on the underdog. This is the best price you’ll get before the puck drops.

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