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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington over Boston

7:07 PM EST. OT included. The Bruins are getting plenty of love from the market, as they’ve won three of their last four and are looking to enter the holiday break on a high note, but let’s take a closer look at what’s really happening here. Boston just returned from a grueling five-game Western Conference road trip, and their first game back against Buffalo wasn’t exactly inspiring. Yes, they won 3-1, but it took a late go-ahead goal from Morgan Geekie and an empty-netter from Brad Marchand to seal it. Buffalo had plenty of chances to take control but couldn’t capitalize and shots on both sides were uninspiring at 20-19.

Coming off that trip, the Bruins now face a significantly tougher test in Washington, and we’re not sure the market is fully appreciating the Capitals’ dominance. Washington leads the league in point percentage (.727) and has been suffocating defensively, allowing three or fewer goals in nine straight games. Over their last 10, the Capitals are 7-2-1, which matches Boston’s record in the same span, but the Caps have done it in far more convincing fashion and they’ve done it without Alex Ovechkin, who will not return until after the break. Furthermore, the Caps have knocked off the likes of the Hurricanes and Kings, while the B’s beat up Buffalo and Calgary with that win over the Flames coming in OT in a game the Bruins were down both 2-0 and 3-1 before forcing extra time.

Let’s also talk about the situational spot here. Boston is coming off a long road trip and likely has one eye on the holiday break. That’s a dangerous mindset, especially against a Capitals team that is disciplined, opportunistic, and relentless. Washington is coming in on the second half of a back-to-back after a 3-1 win against the Kings, but that is not going to stop us from backing them in this spot. The Capitals are the better, more disciplined team and offer significant value as the pooch.

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