Pinnacle +148 BET365 +145 Sportsinteraction +145 888Sport +145

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

N.Y. Islanders +148 over Toronto

7:00 PM ET. OT included. It’s nights like these that remind us why betting against the public darling is not just about the value—it’s about the mindset. The Maple Leafs, with their glitz and glam, are fresh off a three-game winning streak, punctuated by a feel-good story in Matt Murray’s triumphant return to the NHL. Sprinkle in a two-point night from Captain John Tavares (600 career assists!) and the ever-market-attractive Auston Matthews gutting through injury to score on the power play, and you have a narrative Toronto loves to bathe in, but if you peel back the layers of the Leafs' recent run, the cracks begin to show.

Let’s start with their most recent outing, a 6-3 victory over a Buffalo Sabres squad spiraling out of control. Toronto’s defense was suspect for long stretches, surrendering high-danger chances that Buffalo simply failed to capitalize on. Furthermore, the Sabres had two goals disallowed. The Leafs were opportunistic, yes, but this was more about the Sabres collapsing under the weight of their own ineptitude than Toronto flexing dominance. Now, less than 24 hours later, Toronto is back on home ice to face a scrappy Islanders team that the market has all but dismissed. Prior to that the Leafs were outshot badly in a win over Dallas and also New Jersey. This is a team that is not necessarily playing well, but it’s winning games.

Enter the Islanders, a team whose stock is low after back-to-back losses, including an ugly 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Carolina. Public sentiment on New York is lukewarm at best, and that’s exactly why we’re interested. Recency bias has created a buy-low spot on a team with a lot more going for it than the market realizes.

From a situational perspective, this spot couldn’t be better for the Islanders. They’ve had three full days to rest, regroup, and prepare, while Toronto is playing its third game in four nights. The Leafs' emotional win last night only adds to the potential for a letdown, especially with the quick turnaround. We’re selling high on the Leafs and buying low on the Isles--bank on the upset.

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