Pinnacle +138 BET365 +135 Sportsinteraction +135 888Sport +135

Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Buffalo +138 over Toronto

7:05 PM ET. OT included. It’s never comfortable backing a team on an 11-game losing streak, but if this were easy, we’d all be rich. The Sabres have been a disaster over the last month, compiling an 0-8-3 record since their last win on November 23. That skid includes a 5-3 loss to the Maple Leafs just five days ago in Toronto. Buffalo followed that up with a lifeless 6-1 defeat in Montreal on Tuesday, prompting forward Ryan McLeod to call for introspection and accountability.

So why back Buffalo here? Because the market has gone too far the other way. The Sabres might not be world-beaters, but they also aren’t this bad and their fortunes are bound to change, and even if that’s not tonight, Buffalo is undervalued and under the radar. On the flip side, the Maple Leafs are being overvalued as a road favorite, in part because of their high-powered offense and recent success.

Toronto is riding high after a 5-3 victory in Dallas on Wednesday, a game in which they leaned heavily on goaltender Joseph Woll, who made 36 saves. Woll has been solid this season, but his numbers against Buffalo (1-1-0, .866 SV%, 4.52 GAA) suggest he’s vulnerable against this opponent. Furthermore, the Maple Leafs are far from a defensive juggernaut.

Buffalo’s desperation and Toronto’s inconsistency in these types of games make the Sabres a live dog in this spot. The Leafs have dropped points in games they “should” win before, and this is a prime letdown spot after a marquee win in Dallas.

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