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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Calgary +105 over Ottawa

9:07 PM ET. The Senators roll into Calgary riding a four-game winning streak, fueled by strong goaltending and opportunistic scoring. Linus Ullmark has been nothing short of spectacular, winning six straight starts while posting back-to-back shutouts on the road. While Ullmark has carried them with superhuman goaltending, this type of performance isn’t sustainable. Regression is inevitable, especially when a team relies so heavily on a single player. Over the past seven games, the Senators have scored first in six of them, a significant factor in their success.

Enter the Flames, a squad whose record doesn’t reflect their potential. Calgary has dropped four of six and blew a two-goal lead against Boston on Tuesday, but don’t let the recent skid fool you—they are dangerous in this spot. The Flames outplayed the Bruins for significant stretches, particularly in the first half of the game. Their struggles in the faceoff circle (44.6%) and late-game lapses have been glaring, but these are correctable issues. At home, Calgary is 11-4-2, and the Saddledome remains one of the tougher venues in the league.

This is a classic buy-low, sell-high situation. Ottawa’s stock is at its peak, and the price reflects it. Calgary, meanwhile, is undervalued due to recency bias. The Senators have been living off Ullmark’s heroics, and when that bubble bursts, the results won’t be pretty. At plus money at home, the Flames are a live dog with significant value.

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