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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Tampa Bay -1½ over Washington

7:07 PM EST. This was the headline from the Washington Post after the Capitals knocked off the Flyers on Thursday night to bring their record to 5-1. We show you this today because it is the perfect example of how the media and the market value wins over all else. Sure, the Capitals are off to a hot start, but they have been very lucky because they are a middling puck-possession team (16th) while ranking 25th in expected goals and 24th in high-danger chances. Trust us when we tell you that the Caps are not a world-beater, and there will be a correction to their inflated winning percentage sooner rather than later.

The Lightning lost their first home game of the season on Thursday night to the Wild, but that 4-2 final flattered the guests, as the Bolts outshot the Wild 27-17, though an off night by Andrei Vasilevskiy sealed their fate. The Lightning have lost three of their last four games, which has them undervalued here, especially when compared to the winning run the Caps are on. We cannot guarantee that Vasilevskiy will bounce back tonight, but we are most certain that the Bolts are going to be the better team in this game and will have their chances to score. We are so bullish on the Bolts in this spot against the overrated Capitals that we are going to spot the -1½ pucks and hope to see you at the cashier’s window.

Sherwood

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For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 3 goals ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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