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Posted October 8, 2024. Odds subject to change.

Boston over 99½ points

The Bruins enter this season with a chip on their shoulder big enough to see from Boston after an off-season that saw the pissing match between newly cemented #1 goaltender Jeremy Swayman and GM Don Sweeney end with the former’s holdout ending on Sunday with an 8-year, $64-million deal that looks like an absolute steal on paper. That wasn’t the only deal Sweeney signed this summer, as he also brought in the ever-reliable Elias Lindholm on a 7-year, $54.25-million deal to be the #1 center, and the towering Nikita Zadorov (6 years, $30 million) to shore up the back end. Because of his 6'6" frame and the "B" he now wears on his chest, Zadorov is being compared to former Bruins captain Zdeno Chara.

Market perception of the Bruins is down this year for a number of reasons—from the Swayman drama to the status of a roster that is a mix of aged veterans, splashy free agents, and unproven youngsters. However, that mix could prove to be fruitful. The Bruins have been in sore need of a fresh coat of paint, and this team has it. Sure, Brad Marchand is still there, and David Pastrnak, too, but the B’s made additions by subtracting the likes of Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen, Matt Grzelcyk, James van Riemsdyk, Pat Maroon, Linus Ullmark, Derek Forbort, and Kevin Shattenkirk—either saving money, opening a roster spot, or picking up draft capital.

It’s worth noting the market is also much higher on teams like Ottawa, Montreal, Detroit, and Buffalo, which has taken a bite out of the 109 points the Bruins posted last season. One or two of those teams might be better, but one or more could all take a step back, too. This year, oddsmakers have the B’s posted at a relatively modest 99½-points, which is a significant drop off from years past. In fact, the Bruins have not posted a points total less than 99 in a full season since 2016-17.

We’ve heard the breakdown of how average the B’s were in the analytics last season, but again, that “average” team put up 109 points. Are the Bruins really 10 points worse than they were last season? We not only say no, we’d argue they are better. While we generally prefer to play the under-on-season point totals, there is too much value on the Bruins to go over this beatable number and hit triple digits in points once again.

Sherwood

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