Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +138 BET365 +135 Sportsinteraction +125 888Sport +135

Arizona +138 over Winnipeg

7:07 PM EST. OT included. Forget Arizona because situationally speaking, there might not be a better spot on the board for a team to pick up a win today than the one the Coyotes find themselves in their former home—Winnipeg, Manitoba (seriously, look it up)!

You see, the Jets have been home for nine days, where they have played games against the Predators, Stars, Devils, and Sabres, with that game against Buffalo coming last night at the Canada Life Centre. The Jets would win that game, their second in a row and fifth of their last six, but cracks were beginning to show in Winnipeg's armor.

The Sabres would outshoot the Jets last night 28-18, and Winnipeg would also be on the wrong side of the expected goals (xGF) metric, as Buffalo posted a 3.38 xGF to the Jets' weak 1.27. The big reason for such a discrepancy in expected goals is that the Jets gave up 18 high-danger scoring chances while only posting four of their own. Thank you, Connor Hellebuyck.

We never overvalue just one game, and so we’d like to go back to Winnipeg’s lopsided 6-3 win over New Jersey on Tuesday night in which the Devils, without Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier, their top two centers, wholly dominated that game in every aspect other than the final score. The Jets posted their worst puck-possession numbers in three weeks in that game, as the last time they were dominated in a contest like that was back on October 26 versus the Red Wings. The undermanned Devils posted 18 high-danger chances to the Jets’ nine, and New Jersey had an xGF of 3.02 to Winnipeg’s 2.15.

To summarize, the Jets are hot on paper but under the hood, they have not played well in the last two games despite getting the winner’s purse, and now they are getting ready to leave frosty Winnipeg for a road trip that will see them hit Tampa Bay, Florida, and Nashville. Could anyone blame the Jets if they already had one skate on the plane? Aside from that, Arizona is no longer an easy out. 

Sherwood

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------