Posted at 4:00 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +146  BET365  +145 Sportsinteraction +145 888Sport +145

Buffalo +146 over Dallas

7:07 PM EST. OT included. Yeah, like we’re not going to fade the Stars as a -165 road favorite in Buffalo. We have no idea what is going to happen in this game but what we do know is that Dallas is the NHL’s most overvalued team and it’s not close. The Stars are grossly overvalued because they’re in first place in the Central with a 34-17-13 record. The market and media’s fascination with winning trumps performance every time, which is why Dallas is so overpriced. They have won a lot of games with weak performances.

The Stars have racked up 81 points but what’s more significant is that 37 of those 81 points were decided by nothing but puck luck (one goal games). If all things were equal, that being one goal wins, OT wins, one goal losses and OT losses were all equal, Dallas would have about 19 points less and would therefore be sitting with 62 points instead of 81. There is not a team in this entire 32 team league that has fewer wins than Dallas against top-10 competition and that includes Montreal, Chicago, Arizona, Philadelphia and San Jose. The Stars have beaten up (barely) on teams not fighting for a playoff spot. Dallas has five wins in 19 games against top-10 competition and they have 13 wins in 31 games against top-16 competition.

Buffalo remains as dangerous an underdog as one will ever want. They have all the characteristics of a live dog. They can score like crazy. They have extreme talent throughout their roster. They’re young and they’re hungry. What they lack in experience and mistakes, they make up for in talent and it makes them almost a 50/50 proposition every time they take the ice. How dangerous are the Sabres as an underdog? Well, they are 19-10-2 on the road and were dogs in 90% of those games. They are just 13-17-2 at home but have lost a bunch of those games as the chalk. Regardless of outcome, there is no question that the Sabres are perhaps the best value bet on today’s board. They should actually be favored.

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