Posted at 4:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +114  BET365  +120 Sportsinteraction +122 888Sport +110

Calgary +122 over Dallas

8:37 PM EST. OT Included. Let’s see if we can make sense of this price on the free-falling Flames. First, Dallas is in first place in the Central and a virtual lock to make the playoffs. The Stars have won three in a row, capped off by Saturday’s resonating, blowout win over Colorado, 7-3. Calgary has a 13% chance of making the playoffs. The Flames have lost not one, not two, not three, not four but five games in a row at the most crucial part of the season thus far. Dallas has 81 points while Calgary has 67.

If we look at other teams that are separated by 14 points or thereabouts, Ottawa is a -270 favorite in Chicago and only six points separate Ottawa and Chicago. The Kings are -160 tonight over Washington and 12 points separate those two. 11 points separate Carolina and Tampa. Yesterday, Carolina was -184 over Tampa. Those are just three examples among dozens of others in which a team that is 14 points better in the standings is a significant favorite. Why then are the Stars a lousy -130 favorite over Calgary in Dallas?

We faded Dallas on Saturday and will fade them again here because just like the oddsmakers, we, too, know that Dallas is probably the second best team in this matchup. While Dallas has been winning with good fortune, Calgary’s fortune has been horrible. Those five losses in succession occurred against Vegas, Colorado, Boston, Toronto and Minnesota. Only once in those five games were Calgary’s Expected Goals For (xGF) worse than the opposition’s and that came in the Flames last game versus Minnesota. Calgary was better against Vegas, Colorado, Boston and Toronto.

After a three game homestand, Calgary figures to be thrilled to get out of Dodge and away from the pressure of playing at home for this brief two game road trip that will continue tomorrow in Minnesota. The Flames will be a bigger underdog tomorrow than they are today but for this one game, oddsmakers are absolutely throwing some bait out there. Dallas is supposed to be a sucker play so let’s see where the chips fall.

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