Posted at 3:00 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle -102 BET365 -105 SportsInteraction -105 888Sport -105

Minnesota -102 over Dallas

8:05 PM EST. OT Included. Dallas is in first in the Central with 71 points, which is two points better than the second place Jets and 10 points better than the Wild. We’ll get back to Dallas in a moment because this wager is all about fading the luckiest team in the NHL, who are a lot worse than its record suggests.

The Wild are unappealing these days. With just one win in their last six games while scoring a lousy 10 goals over that six-game span, who the f**k wants to bet on them? We sure don’t and neither does the efficient market, who started hammering the Stars as soon as Minnesota opened as the favorite. As it stands right now, Dallas is favored because the market loves results and in that regard, Dallas has the superior record and wins a lot of games so let’s discuss that. Before we do, however, do note that Minnesota is absolutely in line for positive regression. It’s not like they’re not getting scoring chances, it’s just that the puck is not finding the back of the net in this hugely luick-driven sport.

The Chicago Blackhawks have two wins v top-10 teams. The Jackets have four. Take a guess as to which team is in between that pair with three wins in 17 games (aka 3-14) v top-10 teams. That would be Dallas with three wins in 17 games versus top -10 teams and just 10 wins in 29 games versus top-16 teams.

If you think the Stars are an elite team or even close to it, you would be wrong. The Stars are lucky and like Chicago and Columbus, they’re not very good except when they play all the dregs. The Stars are the class of the teams that don’t deserve to be going to the playoffs. Dallas has lost four of six. They win games 2-1 or 3-2 and need outstanding goaltending to win because it is a rare day when they outplay anyone. By the way, the Stars aren’t even that good in OT with 11 losses, which is more proof that either their shooters aren’t very good or their goaltender is more lucky than good or both. While the market looks to fade Minnesota, we’ll look to fade the most overrated team in the league.

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