Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:15 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Chicago +210 over St. Louis
8:07 PM EST. OT Included. The St. Louis Blues are coming off a 6-2 home win over Nashville in a game the oddsmakers made them an underdog in. Two games ago, also at home, oddsmakers made the Senators a favorite in St. Louis. Three games ago, oddsmakers made the Blue Notes a +170 favorite at home against the Lightning. We could go on about the “unusual” disrespect that oddsmakers have been showing towards the Blues and we say unusual because St. Louis has been a rock at home for years and years. St. Louis would go on to beat Ottawa, despite being outplayed and firing a mere 20 shots on net, and would subsequently beat Nashville too but if they were an underdog at home to that pair, how could they be a 2½-1 favorite now against a team that is playing as well as Chicago is? Oddsmakers have hated the Blues for several games now but changed gears today based on a couple of lousy victories, the latest being of the blowout variety. Frankly, if Nashville’s goaltending wasn’t so good, they’d probably get blown out frequently because that’s how bad they truly are.
Chicago is coming off a 4-1 win in Philadelphia. Not a big deal but they trailed 1-0 after a strong first period and rallied to win. They also were down two goals to the Sabres and rallied to win that win in OT. Quietly, the Blackhawks have won five of their last six with only loss over that span coming against the then red-hot Kraken. Chicago scored five goals in that game but lost 8-5 after Petr Mrazek allowed four goals on Seattle’s first five shots. This is a pretty big rivalry so perhaps the Blues will bring it all here but so what, as Chicago is on a roll and they’ll bring it too. Most importantly to us is that oddsmakers have zero trust in St. Louis, which has been reflected in them being a dog at home to some weak teams recently. Now they’re a massive favorite based on recency bias and the data that St. Louis was heavily bet at home the past two games. The house lost big on the Blues over that two-game span and have overcompensated for it here.
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Chicago +210 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.20)