Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Seattle -102 over Calgary
10:07 PM EST. OT included. We’re going to anticipate that by puck drop, we’re not going to have to pay any vig to get behind the Kraken, as Calgary will continue to trickle in. Seattle opened as a -108 favorite but at the time of this writing, Calgary moved into the -115 range. Chances are good it’ll move into the -120 range.
Calgary is considered to be a pretty good team that has underachieved while the Kraken are mostly considered to be an average or below average team that has underachieved. We’re not here to argue otherwise. We’re merely pointing out the market perception of these two combatants tonight, which allows us to get behind the team that should be favored as the underdog.
Calgary is hovering around .500. Its goal differential is exactly at 0, meaning they have scored the exact same number of goals they have surrendered. The Flames were supposed to be elite this year but they’re not. The damage done from Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau’s departures was minimized, but it still cannot be ignored. Indeed the Flames have some great talent but the parts are so much better than the sum. In the second game of back-to-backs this year, the Flames are 1-3 with their only victory occurring against Anaheim. Furthermore, the Flames have Vancouver and Winnipeg on deck so this game in Seattle is sandwiched between games against Edmonton (last night) and Vancouver (Saturday) and Winnipeg (Tues).
As for the Kraken, you will seriously not watch a team that works harder or wants to win more. They play their hearts out every shift of every game and they’re good. Not only are they good but they’re quick as lightning and are usually getting to those loose pucks faster than the opposition. Seattle’s Achilles Heel is its goaltending. If we were betting every game based on the starting goalies, it would be difficult to pull the trigger on Seattle. That said, we do not fade or back a team based on who is in goal because there isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict which goaltender will be better. There are between 5 and 10 very reliable and consistent goaltenders in the NHL. After that, it’s a crap shoot and both Calgary and Seattle’s goaltending is in the crapshoot category. What we know for sure is that the Kraken are a live dog. They have balanced scoring, depth, solid defense and they seldom get outplayed or outworked in their own barn no matter who the opposition is. When the books made Seattle a favorite to open, they got it right but the inefficient market believes otherwise. Having to choose between the inefficient market and the oddsmakers, we’d choose the latter 99.999999999999% of the time.
Seattle -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)