Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:45 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Ottawa -½ -105 over Philadelphia
7:05 PM EST. Regulation only. After 10 games, Philadelphia has a better record than Ottawa. That’s absurd. After 10 games, Philadelphia has a better record than Penguins, Maple Leafs and Blue Notes also, to name a few. That, too, is absurd. Philadelphia is 5-3-2 because they have the hottest goaltender in the league right now in Carter Hart. Without him, they might be 0-10 because the Flyers outplay nobody.
In its last two games, the Flyers were outshot 80-44. In a game last week at Florida, Philadelphia was outshot 51-22 and won. They had another win v Tampa when they were outshot 39-24. Philadelphia ranks dead last in the NHL in puck possession time in the offensive end during 5-on-5 play. They rank 31st out of 32 teams in xGF%. They rank bottom two (with Arizona) in every faucet of the game except goaltending so if Carter Hart stands on his head again here and beats us, so be it.
In case you need it, Ottawa has dropped two straight, one to Buffalo and one to Vegas. However, the Sens are absolutely loaded and that two-game losing streak was preceded by a four-game winning streak. The Sens rank top-10 in puck-possession time in the offensive end, which is vastly superior to Philadelphia.
Here’s what we know about hockey. We know outcomes of single games are highly luck-driven. However, with analytics, we can find predictive value in knowing which team is very likely going to control the game and from that point on, it is out of our control. We are almost guaranteed that after back-to-back losses, the Sens are not going to be flat here. If they’re not flat, they’ll dominate play from start to finish. If they dominate play from start to finish, their win expectancy is far greater than a team that has to rely on pure luck and an incredible goaltender performance to notch a W. We’ll take our chances.
Ottawa -½ -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)