Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.
St. Louis +155 over Nashville
8:05 PM EST. OT Included. We understand the scenario. St. Louis played at home last night and lost 3-1 to Edmonton. They played in Winnipeg on Monday and lost 4-0. They also played on Saturday and defeated Edmonton 2-0, thus this will be the Blue Notes' fourth game since Saturday. Meanwhile, Nashville has been off for four full days, having last played on Saturday at home against Philadelphia. Yes indeed, Nashville is rested while the Blues are not.
Furthermore, the Blues aren’t scoring. They have one goal in their last two games. Throw in Saturday’s 2-0 win over the Oilers, and the Blues have scored only three times over their past three games. One was an empty-netter and two came on the power play. They have zero five-on-five goals to show for their past 180 minutes of hockey. In a year in which goal scoring is way up, the Blues haven’t joined the party yet and the market doesn’t like that one bit. As a result of everything mentioned above, the Predators are heavily favored here and it is not warranted. Nashville might be the worst team in the NHL but today they’re priced like they’re the Colorado Avalanche in March of last year. In fact, on April 26th of last year, the Blues were in Colorado and were taking back +145. St. Louis is just as good this year as they were last year and perhaps even better but the results are not thus far.
Incidentally, the Blues are playing great on the defensive end. They racked up 38 shots on net last night v Edmonton and even outshot the Oilers 20-6 in a dominating second period. They had an xGF higher than Edmonton’s but once again, we’ll point out that the market only sees results. In a small sample size, the Blues aren’t scoring goals but this team is loaded with offensive talent and the goals will come.
After two victories to open the season overseas against San Jose, Nashville has dropped five in a row. They dropped two to Dallas and then lost in succession to L.A., Columbus and Philadelphia.
We don’t know if the Blues will be running on fumes here but we do know that Nashville cannot be priced in this range over a team that is vastly superior to them. The Blues are missing 30-goal scorer Pavel Buchnevich and 24-goal scorer Brandon Saad with injuries, which is another reason the price here is so high. We care not. On Wednesday, Craig Berube moved Jordan Kyrou to the Robert Thomas line with Vladimir Tarasenko. Brayden Schenn joined Ryan O’Reilly and Ivan Barbashev on another line.
Had the Blues won in Winnipeg and Edmonton or even split, we might’ve laid off this one because there would be no sense of urgency. These are young, in shape players that figure to dig a bit deeper tonight to snap out of it and if they lose, so be it but we cannot refuse taking back a price like this against a team St. Louis should beat 80% of the time.
St. Louis +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)