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NHL Stanley Cup Wager

Posted May 31, before the beginning of Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.

Odds are subject to change. 

Colorado +121 to win the Stanley Cup

This was a wager that we considered making before the last round, but we had so much respect for the Blues that we thought it would be prudent to make sure the Avalanche passed that difficult test. You see, the Blues were easily the most underrated team in these playoffs and we would argue that behind the Avs, man for man, St. Louis was the most complete team in these playoffs. The Blues were a serious, serious test and it doesn’t get tougher now for the Avs. If you are looking for an under the radar squad heading into next season, the Blues may be it. We watched that Av/Blues series intently and were impressed with what we saw on both sides. However since this wager will be placed on Colorado, we’ll save the rest of our praise for the Avalanche.

Where do we start? How about with Cale Makar, who just might be the best two-way defenseman this side of Bobby Orr, who stands on his own as the greatest d-man of all time. Nobody before or since has ever been in the stratosphere of Robert Gordon Orr. We do not use that comparison lightly. If you know, you know and if you don’t, do yourself a favor and go down that rabbit hole on YouTube. Like Orr, there is nothing Makar cannot do, except maybe grow that playoff beard. Bobby always had a babyface, too. That’s a pretty fair trade-off for what he can do on the ice. One NHL veteran said it best when he suggested you don’t know what you are getting with Makar. He’s too fast. North to South and most importantly East to West. Makar has rightly been called a generational talent, but as we suggested, he goes further than that. Dude is multigenerational. The best offensive d-man since #4.

The Avalanche go so deep from top to bottom that we aren’t going to name them all, but when you have a bonafide superstar like Nathan MacKinnon, a solid supporting cast including Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog, Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin. If you’re wondering why we left out Nazem Kadri, it’s because he deserves his own paragraph.

Kadri is one of those players you hate when he’s on the other side, but you would go to battle with him to the end if he were on your team. What Kadri does goes beyond what he produces on the score sheet, which is not insignificant, as he’s posted 10 points in 10 games played in these playoffs. A quick look into Kadri’s analytics through 10 playoff games shows that when he’s out there, good things happen. One could even argue that he’s been a little unlucky. When Kadri is on the ice, he and his mates are generating chances at a high clip (34 High Danger Chances For), while limiting them at the other end (22 High Danger Chances Against). One figures that with a significant downgrade in both defensive and goaltending competition from the Blues to the Oilers, Kadri and the rest of the Avs are in a position to get what is theirs.

From our perch, goaltending is king and these playoffs have proven that. Of the four starting goaltenders remaining, Mike Smith posts the worst Goals Against Average at 2.63. On the surface, it might not be fair to pin that number solely on Smith, but when he does multiple boneheaded things a game, he deserves more criticism than most. The Flames were not able to capitalize on all of Smith’s mistakes. When playing the Avalanche, Smith might not be so fortunate. It must be noted Calgary had its own brain dead ‘tender with Jacob Markstrom picking the worst time to implode, while also taking his team with him. Markstrom took much of, if not all the heat from Smith, who better add him to his Christmas card list.

McDavid versus MacKinnon. That’s how this series is being billed by the talking heads, but that narrative is low hanging fruit. So, too, is the assumption that the goals are going to come in bunches. They may, but who is going to score those goals?

All credit to the Oilers for finally getting a couple of playoff milestones off the bucket list. How excited one should be that it took a Connor McDavid lead team seven seasons to make it to the second round speaks volumes about what a mess the Oilers have been from the very top down. We’ll save that criticism for another day, as it matters not at this moment. At this moment, both McDavid and the Oilers are riding high and are trading in this market at their absolute highest. That means it’s time to sell. The Oilers' path to this Western Conference Final cannot be ignored. A hard fought seven game series with a tough checking and undervalued Kings side rolled right into the first Battle of Alberta in over 30 years.The first Oilers/Flames playoff series since 1991 really set Alberta ablaze. Pun intended. For the first time in a long time, hockey was the most important topic in just about any circle one ran in. Pick up the kids from school. Hockey talk. Soccer is going to clash with the start of Game 1, move it up because we can’t miss puck drop. Car flags were planted obnoxiously in back windows of all makes on models, new and old on both sides. If you watched any of the five high octane games the Oilers and Flames played you know the action was fast and furious (and sloppy as hell). No lead was safe, especially for the Flames. What ailed Calgary can wait for another day as well, but one thing the Flames did not do is pass the eye test. One has to wonder after such a wild series, with emotions running high, are the Oilers going to be able to get back to that level? Edmonton just spanked its biggest rivals in a series that was as high profile as it is going to get on a local, provincial and national level. Edmonton passed with flying colors but this is not Calgary.

There is a reason that cliches are cliches, they often ring true. They say you have to win before you can lose. To that end, we’ll wrap this up with the Avs. This core of Colorado stars has taken its lumps. The Avs lost in the second round of the last three playoffs to Vegas, Dallas and San Jose, respectively. In their first outing in 2018-19, MacKinnon and company were knocked out by the Preds in the first round. If any team has finally vanquished its playoff demons, it’s Colorado. More importantly, the Avs are on another level compared to everyone else. They are in 2022 what the Montreal Canadiens were in 1978. That’s another level and that’s how superior these Avs are to everyone left.

We’re not going to say much about what is going to happen in the East, as it matters not. Regardless of who the Avalanche are going to play, they are going to be favored. This series has a better chance of going four games than it does six or seven. Once Colorado disposes of Edmonton, we’re going to be in a great position with this wager at plus money. There is no better hockey team on the planet, thus, the value here is tremendous and we are not going to pass it up.

If you were to bet Colorado -260 and then take your winnings and bet it all on Colorado to win the next series, it would not add up to +121.