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-½ +140    -½ +137

Posted at 2:30 PM EST and are subject to change.

Colorado -½ +140 over Tampa Bay

8:00 PM EST. Regulation only. Are we at the point of this series where the pundits and pick sellers tell us that the Lightning are “just built to win championships,” “can’t be counted out,” and that they, “should have been given more respect from all of us"? We are? Cool. We’d just like to be sure because it’s starting to feel like deja vu. This same pattern of analysis was seen and heard with the Bolts in Round 1 versus Toronto and in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Rangers. It’s doubt, turn about-face, praise, repeat.

If you’ve been watching this series, you know just how outclassed the Lightning have been. In all three games so far, the Bolts have been the second-best team on the ice by any metric under the hood you’d like to point to. Corsi, Fenwick, High Danger Scoring Chances, you name it. The only area that Tampa Bay has reigned supreme is in PDO or “puck luck.”

In Game 3, a 6-2 win for Tampa Bay, Colorado outshot the Lightning 39 to 33. To give you an idea of how luck-driven hockey can be, when playing 5-on-5, the Avalanche were outscored 5-0, but when comparing Expected Goals For, it was near even at two a side (1.98 to 1.84, slightly in the Avs' favor). Game 3 boiled down to one team having a hot goalie and the other having one that did not have a good night at the office (until he was yanked). Of course the same thing could happen tonight but we'll take class over luck every time.

Colorado is the best team in hockey, top to bottom. This is not a hot take and when they hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup on home ice Friday night, what little debate there still is in that discussion will be put to rest. In the meantime, there is cash on the table and we’re going to attempt to get ourselves some of it in Game 4.