Today's Free Picks for
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Calgary +165 over Edmonton
One of the hardest things to do in sports wagering is to “stick with it.” That is to say, when a team or teams cause you to rip up your ticket, one’s instinct might be to switch sides or bail all together. However, if one saw value in a play and it didn’t cash, there is a good chance that the value in said wager would be increased next time out. With that in mind, we’ll stick with the Flames, despite the pathetic showing in Game 3 and here’s why:
First, Calgary will not be as bad as they were last game. Great teams respond after a flat performance so expect Calgary to be at their absolute best tonight. Furthermore, let’s not forget that the books were offering up Edmonton at +150 to win the series prior to Game 3 so that’s a strong indication of how much respect the oddsmakers were giving Calgary. Let’s also not dismiss how truly dominant the Flames were in Game 1 and a large portion of Game 2. Let’s also not ignore that the propensity of the wagering public is get behind great players in key moments and there is no question who the best player on Earth is, yet oddsmakers were still offering up Edmonton at +150 prior to the series shift to Edmonton.
If one were to be influenced by the media and last game results, one would surely be getting behind the Oil tonight but we’re always preaching to not be influenced by one game or one result, as that is what we refer to as recency bias and it inflates the price on a team that looked so damn good. Connor McDavid is the talk of the hockey world and so he should be but do not give in to media influence, as it has ruined many bankrolls. The more prudent approach would be to just ignore the results from last game and focus on what we have known from the start. What we know for sure is that Calgary is the more complete team with the more stable goaltending. We also know that the price on the Flames tonight is deflated, That’s our prompt to move in.
One could play the Flames as a small pooch here, but if they win tonight, they’ll be in a great position coming home for Game 5. That makes this series wager much more interesting and potentially profitable. As for going over this total, we are going to stick with that too. Like we said in advance of Game 3, if the Flames win this game, they are likely going to need at least four goals to do it.
Calgary +165 to win this series
Calgary/Edmonton over 6½ goals -105
Calgary +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)