NFL Wild Card Playoffs
Denver +8½ -102 over Buffalo

Pinnacle  +8½ -102 BET365 +8½ -110  Sportsinteraction +8½ -110  888Sport +8½ -110

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend

Denver +8½ over Buffalo

1:00 PM ET. The Bills are perennial playoff contenders, a team with lofty expectations year after year. Yet, as the postseason rolls around, Buffalo’s inability to clear the final hurdle looms large. The Bills boast a potent offense, led by Josh Allen and the league’s second-highest scoring unit. They’re the AFC’s No. 2 seed for the third straight year and are widely expected to handle the Broncos with ease, but when the market heaps too much praise on one side, we’re compelled to explore the other, and in this case, there’s plenty of reason to side with the visiting underdogs.

Denver’s season has been a tale of two halves. A 5-3 start showcased the potential of rookie quarterback Bo Nix, but a midseason slump left the Broncos clinging to their playoff hopes. Still, they found a way in, capped by last week’s emphatic 38-0 victory over Kansas City. Critics will point out that the Chiefs rested their starters, and while that’s true, Denver’s performance highlighted a team peaking at the right time. Nix, the 12th overall pick in the draft, continues to improve, tossing 12 touchdowns against just one interception in his last four games. Defensively, Denver poses a unique challenge for Buffalo. The Broncos lead the league in sacks with 63, spearheaded by Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper.

While Buffalo’s offense is a juggernaut, the Bills have shown vulnerabilities, particularly in covering large spreads. They’ve covered in just two of their last five games and are 4-7 ATS when favored by a touchdown or more over their last 11. The Broncos, meanwhile, enter as sizable underdogs—a role they’ve thrived in, covering five of their last seven when taking points on the road.

The market will point to Buffalo’s 10-of-11 run to close the season, their Wild Card dominance in recent years, and their 34.3 points per game average in Wild Card contests as justification for the hefty spread, but context matters. Buffalo’s regular-season finale against New England was meaningless, and their starters’ extended rest could lead to a slower start against a Denver team coming off an emotional high. Buffalo’s recent success has them priced as if they’re invincible, but that’s just not the case. Make no mistake, the Broncos are capable of winning this game, but we’re content to put the inflated points in our back pockets.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

Sharkies

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------



Our Pick

Denver +8½ -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)