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Posted at 9:30 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend

Pittsburgh +9½ over Baltimore

8:00 PM EST. There are few rivalries in the NFL as heated as Ravens-Steelers, and while the market seems to believe Baltimore will cruise past a struggling Pittsburgh squad, we see this matchup differently. That said, the Ravens come into this game riding a four-game win streak and boasting one of the league's most dominant offenses. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have combined to create a record-breaking ground attack, and Jackson’s passing efficiency has reached MVP levels. On paper, the Ravens are a juggernaut, and Pittsburgh—on a four-game losing streak—looks like a team destined for an early playoff exit.

The Ravens deserve respect, but 9½ points in a divisional playoff game is a massive number—especially when the favorite has significant question marks of its own. Lamar Jackson, for all his regular-season brilliance, has struggled mightily in the postseason with a 2-4 playoff record and six interceptions. That history of playoff struggles looms large, particularly against a Steelers defense that knows him inside and out. Additionally, Baltimore’s high-powered attack has leaned heavily on their ability to finish drives in the red zone, however, Pittsburgh’s Red-zone defense is ranked in the top 10.

Yes, Russell Wilson has hit a rough patch, and his recent performances have been uninspiring, but playoff experience matters, and Wilson’s 9-7 career postseason record and Super Bowl win bring a level of steadiness to the Steelers’ offense. Wilson doesn’t need to be spectacular; he simply needs to manage the game effectively and we’ll be on our way to the pay window. Furthermore, the potential wild card here is Justin Fields. Fields’ athleticism could provide a spark if the Steelers’ offense stalls early. While it’s unclear how much of a role Fields might play, his ability to move the chains with his legs adds an unpredictable element, or “in-game variance,” as we like to call it.

The most compelling reason to back Pittsburgh is the line itself. A divisional playoff game featuring two teams that are extremely familiar with each other should rarely see a spread this large. The Ravens may very well win, but the Steelers have the tools to keep this game within this significant price. Take the points and don’t look back.

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