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Posted at 9:30 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend

Houston over L.A. Chargers

4:30 PM ET. First, let’s address the elephant in the room: the ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles. While it’s not a metric you’ll find in the box score, the psychological and emotional toll such an event can have on players and staff is real. Wildfires can create significant distractions as players worry about their families, homes, and communities back in California. The Chargers are professionals, of course, but no amount of focus on football can completely erase those concerns. This factor looms large as L.A. prepares for a cross-country trip into a hostile playoff environment.

On the field, the Chargers closed out the season on a three-game win streak, which included a must-win victory over the Raiders in Week 18. Their defense has been elite all season, ranking first in points allowed per game (17.7), fifth in third-down efficiency (35.7%), and first in red-zone touchdown rate (45%). At a glance, this appears to be a team peaking at the right time, but this success has inflated their market perception, creating value on the home underdog.

Enter Houston. While the Texans backed into the playoffs by virtue of playing in the AFC South—arguably the weakest division in the league—they aren’t without strengths. Their defense quietly ranked sixth in passing yards allowed per game (201.1) and tied for fourth in sacks with 49.

On offense, C.J. Stroud has taken a noticeable step back in his second season, with a dip in passing yards, touchdowns, and efficiency compared to his standout rookie campaign, but playoff football often comes down to matchups, and the Texans have offensive pieces that can exploit L.A.’s vulnerabilities.

From a situational standpoint, the Texans also have the edge. Houston rested key players in Week 18, ensuring they come into this game healthier and more prepared. The Chargers, on the other hand, expended significant energy in their playoff-clinching victory over the Raiders. Add in the potential distraction of the wildfires, and L.A. might not be as sharp as they need to be. Texans outright is the call.

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