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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland +20 over Baltimore

4:30 PM ET. Here we go again with the Ravens, a team being billed as invincible, spotting a tag that looks more suited to a college mismatch than a professional football game. Baltimore is rolling, no question about it. A decisive Christmas Day dismantling of Houston has the Ravens on the brink of clinching the AFC North. Lamar Jackson is rewriting record books, the defense is stifling, and the market is all in. On the other side, Cleveland is... Cleveland: a dumpster fire franchise on its 40th quarterback since 1999, limping into Week 18 with nothing but draft positioning at stake. So why even look at the Browns? Simple: because this number is absurd.

First, let’s talk about perception. Baltimore just pasted the Texans 31-2 in a game that was over before halftime. Lamar Jackson is running wild, the Ravens have won three straight, and they’re sitting at 11-5, chasing a high seed in the AFC playoffs. The public can’t get enough of this storybook team. Meanwhile, Cleveland is the NFL’s punching bag, scoring a combined 16 points in its last three games and riding a five-game losing streak. The Browns are as unplayable as it gets, that’s why the spead is known as the “great equalizer”.

Let’s consider the Ravens’ position. They’re massive favorites here, but they don’t need style points. A win secures the division, and John Harbaugh is no stranger to pulling starters once a lead feels safe. Add in the flu bug sweeping through the Ravens’ locker room, and this game starts to look more like an exercise in self-preservation than a statement victory. How motivated is Baltimore to run up the score when the playoffs are around the corner?

Now flip the script to Cleveland. Yes, they’re a disaster. But buried in their misery are hints of competitiveness. The Browns actually beat Baltimore earlier this season, and while this isn’t the same team that pulled off that upset, it’s worth noting that their games against the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium have been oddly close. Baltimore has only covered the spread twice in their last eight home games against Cleveland, and most of those spreads weren’t nearly this inflated.

The Browns’ offense is atrocious, their quarterback situation is laughable, and their injury report looks like a CVS receipt. Yet, they’re getting 19 points. That’s three scores in a professional football game. The Ravens haven’t been the most reliable team as heavy chalk, covering just six times in their last 19 games as double-digit favorites. Hold your nose and take the points.

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