Posted Friday at 3:00 pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 18

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Saturday, January 4

Cleveland +19 over Baltimore

4:30 PM ET. Here we go again with the Baltimore Ravens, a team being billed as invincible thome, spotting a tag that looks more suited to a college mismatch than a professional football game. Baltimore is rolling, no question about it. A decisive Christmas Day dismantling of Houston has the Ravens on the brink of clinching the AFC North. Lamar Jackson is rewriting record books, the defense is stifling, and the market is all in. On the other side, Cleveland is... Cleveland: a dumpster fire franchise on its 40th quarterback since 1999, limping into Week 18 with nothing but draft positioning at stake. So why even look at the Browns? Simple: because this number is absurd.

First, let’s talk about perception. Baltimore just pasted the Texans 31-2 in a game that was over before halftime. Lamar Jackson is running wild, the Ravens have won three straight, and they’re sitting at 11-5, chasing a high seed in the AFC playoffs. The public can’t get enough of this storybook team. Meanwhile, Cleveland is the NFL’s punching bag, scoring a combined 16 points in its last three games and riding a five-game losing streak. The Browns are as unplayable as it gets, that’s why the spead is known as the “great equalizer”.

Let’s consider the Ravens’ position. They’re massive favorites here, but they don’t need style points. A win secures the division, and John Harbaugh is no stranger to pulling starters once a lead feels safe. Add in the flu bug sweeping through the Ravens’ locker room, and this game starts to look more like an exercise in self-preservation than a statement victory. How motivated is Baltimore to run up the score when the playoffs are around the corner?

Now flip the script to Cleveland. Yes, they’re a disaster. But buried in their misery are hints of competitiveness. The Browns actually beat Baltimore earlier this season, and while this isn’t the same team that pulled off that upset, it’s worth noting that their games against the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium have been oddly close. Baltimore has only covered the spread twice in their last eight home games against Cleveland, and most of those spreads weren’t nearly this inflated.

The Browns’ offense is atrocious, their quarterback situation is laughable, and their injury report looks like a CVS receipt. Yet, they’re getting 19 points. That’s three scores in a professional football game. The Ravens haven’t been the most reliable team as heavy chalk, covering just six times in their last 19 games as double-digit favorites. Hold your nose. Recommendation: Cleveland +19

Cincinnati -1½ over Pittsburgh

8:15 PM ET. The Bengals have been in desperation mode since the final whistle blew on their Week 1 home loss to the Patriots. At one point, Cincinnati was 4-8, but now at 8-8, its playoff hopes are still alive. They need a win here and help elsewhere to secure a wild-card spot. While that scenario isn’t likely, Cincinnati isn’t rolling over. This team has rattled off four straight wins, fueled by Joe Burrow’s MVP-caliber play where he has at least three touchdowns in eight consecutive games.

On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati’s defense has quietly improved. After a shaky start to the season, the Bengals now rank 17th in opponent EPA per play since Week 11, outperforming Pittsburgh in that span. While the Bengals’ defense isn’t elite, it’s good enough to contain a Steelers offense that relies on Najee Harris and a sputtering Russell Wilson to generate points.

Speaking of Wilson, his recent performances have been underwhelming. Pittsburgh’s quarterback hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in three straight games and is surrounded by an offense that ranks 23rd in Net Yards per Play on the season. This is a far cry from the explosive unit that put up 44 points against Cincinnati in Week 13.

Along with Wilson, the Steelers are limping into Week 18, losers of three straight and gasping for air after playing three brutal games in an 11-day span. Pittsburgh is playoff-bound, but unless Baltimore stumbles earlier in the day, their divisional hopes will evaporate before kickoff. Coach Mike Tomlin has already hinted at resting starters if that scenario plays out, further weakening an already vulnerable team.

The Steelers’ recent struggles aren’t just anecdotal; the stats paint an ugly picture. Over their last three games, Pittsburgh ranks dead last in Net Yards per Play (-1.3). This is a team running on fumes, especially on defense. Since Week 11, Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 21st in opponent EPA per play, a steep drop-off from their usual standards. Fatigue, injuries, and a brutal schedule have taken their toll. Recommendation: Cincinnati -1½

Sunday, January 5

Carolina +8 over Atlanta

1:00 PM ET. Let’s be real about the Falcons’ situation. Atlanta’s playoff hopes rest on more than just a win—they need Tampa Bay to lose to New Orleans, which is not likely, as the Buccaneers are double-digit chalk. That 11% playoff probability hanging over their heads isn’t exactly inspiring. Regardless, this is still a team that ranks 28th in the NFL in offensive efficiency and has struggled to put away inferior competition all season.

Furthermore, rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is making just his third career start, and while he’s shown glimpses of promise, he’s not someone to trust with an inflated line like this. Penix has thrown for a respectable 425 yards in his first two starts but has just one touchdown against two interceptions.

Carolina’s blowout loss to Tampa Bay last week looks ugly on the surface, but it sets up one last “buy low” situation on the Black Cats of Charlotte. The Panthers are one of the NFL’s worst road teams (1-6), but the betting market is overreacting to that last bad outing. Prior to the Tampa game, Carolina upset Arizona in overtime and nearly knocked off Tennessee on the road.

Carolina QB Bryce Young has quietly turned a corner in the latter half of the season. After a rocky start, the rookie has thrown for four touchdowns with zero interceptions over his last two games. His chemistry with receivers like Adam Thielen and Terrace Marshall Jr. has improved noticeably, and he’s avoided the costly mistakes that plagued him earlier in the year. Carolina has nothing to lose, and that can put the dagger in the Dirty Birds so the Bucs don’t have to. What more motivation does a team need? Recommendation: Carolina +8

Chicago +10 over Green Bay

1:00 PM ET. It’s easy to dismiss the Bears here. They’re mired in a disastrous season, sitting at 4-12, riding a 10-game losing streak, and playing on the road against a playoff-bound Packers squad that has owned them for over a decade. The Bears have been the league’s punching bag this season. Caleb Williams’ rookie campaign has been a trial by fire behind a leaky offensive line, but the kid has shown flashes of brilliance despite being sacked a league-high 67 times.

The Packers are playoff-bound and Jordan Love hasn’t thrown an interception in six games, but let’s not crown him just yet. Love has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in back-to-back games and struggled against the Vikings last week. His deep-ball accuracy has been inconsistent, and while the Packers offense has been humming against inferior competition, this is still a team that struggles to put opponents away. Green Bay has had plenty of close calls this season, including their narrow 20-19 win over Chicago in Week 11, a game where they needed a blocked field goal to win.

The narrative surrounding this game is that Green Bay will cruise to an easy win as they prepare for the playoffs. But double-digit spreads in the NFL are tricky, especially in divisional games. The Bears might be 0-7 ATS on the road this season, but this is a massive number against a Packers team that hasn’t shown a killer instinct and doesn't really need this game, as the difference between the last two Wild Cards sports is negligible. A road playoff game is a road playoff game. Meanwhile, the Bears are playing for pride, jobs, and a chase to rough up the Packers before they head to the playoff party.

Oddsmakers have inflated this line based on the perception that the Packers are a playoff contender and the Bears are hapless, but perception doesn’t equal value, and the Bears, for all their flaws, are taking back inflated points here which makes them the prudent play. Recommendation: Chicago +10

Dallas +6½ -110 over Washington

1:00 PM ET. The market loves winners, and the Commanders are basking in the glow of their best season since 1991. With 11 wins, a playoff berth secured, and a shiny new franchise quarterback in Jayden Daniels, the Commanders have become the darlings of the NFC, but when a team’s stock reaches these euphoric heights, inflated prices inevitably follow.

The Commanders don’t have much to play for here other than seeding—they’ll either be the NFC’s No. 6 or No. 7 seed. Head coach Dan Quinn has zero incentive to expose his key players to injury in a meaningless finale ahead of Wild Card Weekend. Daniels, who has exceeded all expectations as a rookie, has already locked up Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and isn’t likely to see much action, if any.

Enter the Dallas Cowboys, a team the market can’t dump fast enough. Dallas has had a rough season, marked by injuries to key players, including Dak Prescott, and they’re coming off a humiliating 41-7 loss to Philadelphia. The Cowboys are limping to the finish line, but that loss has created an opportunity. Dallas is a proud franchise, and owner Jerry Jones won’t tolerate another embarrassing performance. While this may be Mike McCarthy’s swan song as head coach, he’s still auditioning for his next job, as are the rest of the guys with blue stars on their helmets. The Cowboys have every reason to put forth a respectable effort.

Regardless, we’re catching inflated points with a “dog-friendly” number in +6½ with a locker room that is still full of prideful warriors. Washington’s bubble could easily burst here, as the Commanders’ focus should already be on the postseason. Recommendation: Dallas +6½

Indianapolis -5 over Jacksonville

1:00 PM ET. The Colts are spotting more than a field goal, and at first glance, it might feel uncomfortable backing a team that just surrendered 45 points to the New York Football Giants in Week 17, but let’s not forget the context. That game was on the road, against a desperate Giants squad with nothing to lose, and the Colts’ defense had an uncharacteristically bad day and they’ll be eager to redeem themselves because pride still matters.

Offensively, there’s reason for optimism in Indianapolis. Anthony Richardson’s status remains uncertain, but whether it’s Richardson or Joe Flacco under center, the Colts have proven they can move the ball against Jacksonville. They put up 34 points on the Jags in their Week 5 matchup without Jonathan Taylor, who will be suiting up this time around. Taylor ranks seventh in the league in rushing despite missing games.

On the other side, the Jaguars are a mess. Trevor Lawrence is out, and Mac Jones has been serviceable but uninspiring as his replacement. Jones’ numbers are inflated by playing from behind against soft coverage, and he’ll now be operating behind a banged-up offensive line that struggled mightily against the Titans last week. Jacksonville’s offensive woes are well-documented—they’ve scored seven or fewer points in three of their past seven games—and this is not the spot for a breakthrough. Swallow the points. Recommendation: Indianapolis -5

New Orleans +14 over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM ET. The Buccaneers are in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot, and the books have responded with a gaudy number that screams confidence. However, this is a heavy-handed overreaction to a dominant win over Carolina, where Baker Mayfield looked like the second coming of Joe Montana with his near-perfect 153.0 passer rating and five-touchdown performance fresh in the mind of the market. Tampa’s 5-1 run since the bye is impressive, but let’s not ignore that three of those wins came against sub-.500 teams.

We also have to consider the situational factors. The Saints are catching Tampa in a must-win situation, which the media and the market love to eat up. Teams in such a role, when burdened with heavy expectations, have a tendency to play not to lose rather than to win.

The Saints, meanwhile, have become a punching bag for public perception. Yes, Spencer Rattler has struggled in his rookie campaign, and yes, New Orleans’ offense has been about as creative as a kindergarten art project, but there’s a different narrative hidden beneath their ugly losses. Rattler is still a rookie adapting to the league’s speed and complexity, and the Saints’ defense has flashes of brilliance, particularly with veterans like Cameron Jordan and Tyrann Mathieu anchoring the unit. Against a divisional rival with so much at stake, expect a spirited effort from a team playing for pride and a chance to spoil Tampa Bay’s plans even if NOLA is a double-digit dog.

Finally, the Saints’ locker room, like the rest of the city of New Orleans was rocked by the New Year’s Eve tragedy on Bourbon Street. The Saints have every reason to channel those emotions into a season-ending statement game. This one is about more than football, it’s about a community terrorized by an unnecessary and unthinkable attack and its hometown team putting its city on its back. Recommendation: New Orleans +14

Tennessee -1½ over Houston

1:00 PM ET. The narrative is clear: Houston is preparing for the postseason, while Tennessee is "playing out the string" and vying for a high draft pick. We’ll start with the Texans, who are locked into the AFC’s No. 4 seed. Their incentive to win this game is less than zero. DeMeco Ryans can talk about “building momentum” all he wants, but actions speak louder than words, and the reality is that Houston will approach this game with kid gloves.

Ryans knows better than to risk a season-altering injury in a meaningless game despite saying that anyone who is “healthy enough” to play will suit up. QB CJ Stroud is far from 100%, and Houston’s patchwork offensive line won’t make things easier for him IF he plays, however, this line suggests what we already know, the Texans need this game like they need a hole in the head.

Meanwhile, the Titans may be the NFL’s most unwatchable team and sport the league’s worst ATS record (2-14), but this isn’t about aesthetics; it’s about the reality of the situation. Tennessee is riding a five-game losing streak, and their 3-13 record is an eyesore, but the market has buried this team so deeply that any glimmer of competence is enough to cash a ticket. At home, laying less than a field goal against a team with no interest in the outcome, Tennessee is suddenly in a very playable spot.

The market loves Houston, as they’ve driven this line down from the Texans +4 to the price now posted based on the assumption that the Texans are playing their starters as coach Ryans has stated, however, what is said and done are two different things entirely. Tennessee doesn’t have the luxury of resting anyone. The Titans will play to win if only to give themselves a shot to find a job in the NFL next season. This is Tennessee’s game to lose. Recommendation: Tennessee -1½

Philadelphia -3 -105 over N.Y. Giants

4:25 PM ET. Let’s not mince words: the Giants 45-33 win over the Colts was the football equivalent of finding a needle in a haystack. Drew Lock had a career day with five touchdowns, but that’s as relevant as lightning striking the same place twice. Before last Sunday, the Giants hadn’t reached 30 points in a single game all season.

New York hasn’t sniffed competency on offense, ranking near the bottom of the league in every meaningful metric. That victory came at the cost of the G-Men’s top draft position, which caused their fan base to melt down and the media to annihilate them for the audacity of winning a football game. So much for silver linings.

Philadelphia obliterated Dallas 41-7 last week with backup quarterback Kenny Pickett under center, proving their system can function regardless of personnel. Pickett likely won’t play this week due to a rib injury, but third-stringer Tanner McKee is more than capable of managing the game against this Giants defense. And let’s not forget the Eagles' depth in the trenches. Even with key players like Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley sitting, Philly’s offensive and defensive lines should dominate the point of attack.

The line suggests that Philadelphia’s backups are on par with the Giants’ starters, but that’s a theory we’re willing to test. The Giants season has been defined by losing, mismanagement, poor coaching, et al, and one fleeting success doesn’t change who they are. The G-Men are who we think they are, and we’re not going to let them off the hook. Recommendation: Philadelphia -3 -105

L.A. Rams +6½ over Seattle

4:25 PM ET. Let’s set the stage: the Rams are playoff-bound, NFC West champs, and preparing for Wild Card weekend. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are eliminated and left to stew over what could’ve been. The Rams are sitting starters, and the Seahawks are trying to hit statistical benchmarks. The market has taken these narratives and steamed Seattle to a near-touchdown favorite. We’re not buying.

The Rams are a professional football team with depth and pride, coached by one of the sharpest minds in the league. Sean McVay has shown in the past that he’s more than capable of getting a second-string roster ready to compete. The Rams’ backups are not the dregs of the NFL; this is a team with solid depth across the board, particularly on defense. Los Angeles has held its last three opponents to under 10 points, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished by this franchise since 1975. Backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo has won games in this league, and he’ll be surrounded by a motivated crew, even if they are back-ups.

Contrast that with Seattle. The Seahawks are in full-on “play for pride” mode, but in reality, this one might just be about the money QB Geno Smith will start and is chasing contract escalators, but forcing throws to pad stats doesn’t lead to winning football. What about Seattle’s five-game road winning streak, you ask? Sure, it’s impressive on the surface, but four of those wins came against non-playoff teams, and three were by a touchdown or less.

Asking the Seachickens to cover an inflated number on the road is a stretch. There’s no reason to spot the points in a “meaningless” Week 18 game where the underdog is playoff bound, but still has every incentive to show up and compete. Recommendation: Seattle +6½

Denver -10½ -110 over Kansas City

4:25 PM ET. The Chiefs are the NFL’s Goliath—winners of three of the last five Super Bowls (and two in a row, don’t you know?!), but even Goliath needs a week off. Kansas City comes into Denver with a skeleton crew, having already locked up the AFC’s top seed.

Kansas City’s defense, normally one of the best in the league, will also be in cruise control. With Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, and Justin Reid likely resting or limited, Denver’s offense has a golden opportunity to shine. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton needs just 17 yards for his second 1,000-yard season and has financial incentives for additional milestones.

Meanwhile, Denver is in a win-and-you’re-in situation. A victory guarantees the Broncos their first playoff berth since their Super Bowl 50 triumph in 2015. The stakes couldn’t be higher for a team that has clawed its way back into contention. Denver is coming off two heartbreaking losses, but they’ve been competitive, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix has shown flashes of brilliance. Last week, Nix threw three touchdowns, including a highlight-reel 51-yard bomb to Marvin Mims.

Denver is a 10½ -point favorite, and while swallowing double digits against the Chiefs might seem daunting, this isn’t the almighty Chiefs. This is the “whose idea was it to play an extra week of game?” Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, and several other starters are not going to suit up.

Let’s not forget about Denver’s defense, a unit ranked fifth in the NFL in points allowed. They should feast on rusty Tin-Man, Carson Wentz, and a patchwork Kansas City offense. Wentz hasn’t started a meaningful game in nearly a year, and while he may still have a capable arm (LOLZ, insert shrugs emoji), he’ll be throwing to misfits.

Head coach Andy Reid has nothing to prove here, and his primary goal is to leave Denver in one piece. The Chefs need this game in the Mile High City like a hole in the head and Kansas City’s apathy is reflected in this “favorite friendly” line. When the oddsmakers tell us something, we listen. Recommendation: Denver -10½

Las Vegas +4½ over L.A. Chargers

4:25 PM ET. It's been another disappointing season for the Raiders, but they're closing out the year on a high note. After starting the season with the dark cloud of a potential No. 1 draft pick, Antonio Pierce has rallied the troops and coached his squad to a two-game win streak. Now, they are in a position to play spoiler which is a role to be relished.

The Chargers have secured a playoff berth, but they're stuck in the No. 5 or 6 seed, with little to play for in terms of positioning. A win could shift them to the 5th seed and an easier matchup against Houston, but with coach Jim Harbaugh’s proclamation of “attacking it with enthusiasm unknown to mankind,” you have to wonder just how much fight there is left in a Chargers team that’s already banged up and playoff-bound regardless.

Enter the Raiders. Despite being a team with nothing to lose, they've shown a level of grit that might surprise even their own fanbase. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers has broken records, and Ameer Abdullah, despite his age, has rediscovered his legs. The Raiders’ defense has tightened up recently, and with Aidan O'Connell leading the offense, they’re more than capable of keeping this game close.

What’s most notable is the Raiders willingness to compete—they’re not laying down for a higher draft pick, and with a coach like Pierce, this team is playing for pride and a desire to end the season on a high note by punching the Chargers in the mouth one last time this season. Recommendation: Las Vegas +4½

Miami -1 over NY Jets

4:25 PM ET. If the Jets are a football team, then reality TV is Shakespearean Theatre. Gang Green has become the NFL’s version of a bad soap opera, a team full of me-first players who look more interested in securing employment next season outside the swamps of Jersey.

Let’s call it what it is: the Jets are a disaster. At 4-12, this team has folded like a cheap lawn chair. Last week, they were humiliated 40-14 in Buffalo, and that score flatters them. Aaron Rodgers, who is short of an unflattering pair of Crocs has turned into everything he used to despise in the Ol’ GunSlinger, Brett Favre. Ironic, don’t you think? Rodgers managed a season-low 112 passing yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions before hitting the bench in the second half. That wasn’t strategy—it was sweet f**king mercy.

Rodgers’ supposed farewell tour couldn’t be less inspiring (let’s not kid ourselves, someone is going to pay time way too much money to play QB next season.), as he’s publicly hinted this could be his final game, but let’s be real: his teammates checked out weeks ago. Head coach? One down and the next is likely gone after this season. General manager? Well, you get the point. The most interesting story out of another sad Jets season is that owner Woody Johnson’s son telling him to nix a deal for WR Jeury Judy from Denver because his Madden rating was not up to snuff. Y’all, if you think those Jonson boys are the only ones with that kind of influence in this league we have a stack of PSA 10 Gretzky Rookies that you should come take a look at.

Enter the Dolphins. Miami doesn’t have the luxury of apathy. At 8-8, they’re still alive for the playoffs, needing a win here and a Denver loss to sneak into the AFC’s final playoff spot. Before the emails come about the “must win” please see the Jets analysis above Tyler Huntley stepped in and delivered a confident performance in last week’s 20-3 win at Cleveland, completing 22 of 26 passes with a major and he didn’t turn the ball over. Huntley may not light up the scoreboard, but, you know what? At this point, he’s easier to trust than AR12.

Rodgers will have to contend with a Miami defense that has quietly been one of the league’s stingiest units, ranking top 10 in points allowed and holding opponents to just 20.8 points per game. The Jets’ offense, on the other hand, has devolved into chaos. They’ve managed just one win in their last six games at home against Miami and are fresh off a scoreless first half in Buffalo. No need to overthink it. Just sit back and enjoy watching the Jets spiral one last time this season. Recommendation: Miami -1

San Francisco +4½ over Arizona

4:25 PM ET. The Cardinals, sitting at 7-9, have looked every bit the part of a team limping to the finish line. Once a playoff hopeful at 6-4, Arizona has lost five of its last six games, with their lone win coming against a similarly reeling Chicago team. Last week, Arizona could muster only nine points in a loss to the Rams, a game where Kyler Murray threw for 321 yards but offset it with two interceptions.

Speaking of regression, the Cardinals’ offense is stuck in neutral. They’re down to patchwork at running back, and while Trey McBride and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. are nice pieces, Kyler Murray’s decision-making has left a lot to be desired. Expect the 49ers’ defense to force Murray into mistakes, as they did to him last season.

Arizona’s 24-23 win over the 49ers in Week 5 was a fluke, plain and simple. San Francisco dominated most of that game before self-destructing late, and anyone putting too much stock into that result is ignoring the broader context. The Cardinals have regressed, while San Francisco’s defensive scheme is more than capable of exploiting Arizona’s one-dimensional offense.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have been battered by injuries, but the drop-off isn’t nearly as steep as the oddsmakers would have you believe. Brock Purdy is out, but Joshua Dobbs is a more-than-capable fill-in. Dobbs, who started eight games for Arizona last year, knows this opponent well and flashed solid ability in relief of Purdy on Monday. Dobbs completed three of four passes and rushed for a touchdown in limited action. He’s not a downgrade against a toothless Arizona defense that ranks 27th in DVOA and routinely gets torched by even mediocre offenses.

San Francisco doesn’t need its A-game to beat this number, but don’t be surprised if they bring it anyway. This is a well-coached team with depth in spades, and Kyle Shanahan has a knack for making the most out of his personnel. The Niners’ backups have a lot to prove, especially players like Dobbs and Brandon Allen, who are fighting for future opportunities. Arizona has no business being favored in this range against the ‘Niners, backup or not. Recommendation: San Francisco +4½

Detroit -3 over Minnesota

8:15 PM ET. Let’s first acknowledge what this game represents: the final chapter of the regular season and a battle for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Both teams are 14-2, both are playoff-bound, and both have been excellent against the spread. On paper, and in the media, this is a heavyweight fight.

The Lions are an absolute wrecking ball offensively. They lead the NFL in scoring (33.3 points per game) and rank second in total yards per game (410.5). What sets Detroit apart is not just their raw numbers but the variety of ways they can beat you. Jared Goff is playing like a top-five QB, and his supporting cast is unmatched. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams form a lethal receiving duo, and Jahmyr Gibbs is proving to be a game-changing back. The Lions don’t just win; they bury teams with relentless pressure and creativity. However, the media narrative is, the Leo’s are too banged up to make a legit run at the Lombardi Trophy.

Last week’s performance against San Francisco encapsulates what Detroit brings to the table. Down 21-13 at halftime, the Lions stormed back with a 28-13 second-half onslaught in a game they didn’t need to win. The defense forced two turnovers, and the offense delivered a clinic. Dan Campbell is building a team that knows how to handle adversity and thrives under pressure.

The Vikings deserve credit for a strong season, but their 14-2 record feels a bit hollow. Their defense is excellent against the run but highly suspect against the pass, ranking near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed. Furthermore, the Vikes strength of schedule ranked 25th in the league, while the Lions played the eighth toughest sked. The Vikings demolished the Packers last Sunday, and that result has an influence here, as the Vikes were a popular fade target in the market. After that domination, there could be a propensity of the market to “zig-zag” and back Minnesota as the pooch.

If you’ve followed this space long enough, you know we’re always looking for inflated lines, overvalued teams, or situations where the market is leaning too heavily on one side. This game doesn’t fit neatly into any of those categories, but it does give us an opportunity to exploit a nuanced market perception mismatch. The Lions -3 isn’t screaming “value” at first glance, but a closer look at the situation reveals why Detroit is the side we must trust here. The Lions were built for this moment. Recommendation: Detroit -3